EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Losses

Jun-27 11:13

{EUEUAs and UKAs Dec25 are on track for weekly losses of over 4% and 6% respectively, nearing one- and two-month lows, as bearish sentiment driven by weaker TTF prices and increased short activities weighs on both carbon market, without a clear fundamental shift in carbon.

  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.92% at 71.05 EUR/t CO2e
  • UKA DEC 25 up 0.61% at 47.94 GBP/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas JUL 25 down 2.1% at 33.325 EUR/MWh
  • NBP Gas JUL 25 down 2.2% at 77.42 GBp/therm
  • Estoxx 50 up 1% at 5249.52
  • FTSE 100 JUN 25 up 0.5% at 8830
  • TTF front month is extending its downward trend to the lowest since early May after the EU this week agreed to give member states more flexibility with their gas storage targets and amid healthy injections in recent days.
  • The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €69.4/ton CO2e, down 3.57% compared with the previous Germany auction at €71.97/ton CO2e according to EEX.
  • EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 27) - A total of 11.3mn EUAs will be auctioned next week, with four auction sessions will be held. The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €69.4/ton CO2e, down 3.57% w/w and hitting the lowest level since early May, remaining below both the 10 and 50-day moving averages and trending down toward the 100-day moving average.
  • Global energy demand rose by 2% to a record high in 2024 and CO2 emissions from energy rose by 1%, marking a fourth consecutive year of record emissions, despite unprecedented renewable growth, Energy Institute said.

Historical bullets

BONDS: US and UK Roll pace (updated)

May-28 11:06

Roll pace Update, pretty much all done. All the Volume in US Treasuries is just spread related, and September is front Month.

  • WNA: 86%%.
  • USA: 87%.
  • UXY: 81%.
  • TYA: 82%.
  • FVA: 82%.
  • TUA: 81%.
  • Gilt 95%.

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Bunds Is Intact

May-28 11:04
  • In the FI space, recent gains in Bund futures suggest the move down between Apr 22 - May 15, has been a correction. A stronger resumption of gains would strengthen the reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 132.03, the Apr 7 high. This week’s climb reinforces a bullish theme. Key short-term support to watch is 129.13, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish and mark a resumption of the recent bear cycle.
  • A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.

EU-BOND AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

May-28 11:01

The EU has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction next Monday, June 2:

  • Up to E2.5bln of the 2.625% Jul-28 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A4D5QM6)
  • Up to E2.0bln of the 2.75% Feb-33 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DW8)
  • Up to E1.5bln of the 3.375% Nov-42 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DV0)