EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Gains
Oct-31 12:32
EUAs Dec25 are on track for weekly gains of 0.38%, trading within the €78/t range, as market volatility continues to ease, reflected in the ongoing downward trend of the volatility indicator. UKAs Dec25 are on track for 3.22% weekly gains to hit 10-day high following five consecutive winning sessions. Open interest on 28 Oct in UKAs Dec25 hit the lowest level since late Aug.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.17% at 78.54 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.72% at 56.34 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 down 0.6% at 31.18 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 down 0.6% at 81 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.3% at 5679.77
- FTSE 100 DEC 25 down 0.3% at 9762
- Intraday correlation between EUA/TTF near noon at 0.39
- Intraday correlation between EUA/UKA near noon at 0.50
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €78.66/ton CO2e, up 0.24% compared with the previous Germany auction at €78.47/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- LEBA OTC physically delivered EUAs volumes in September 2025 were at 163Mt, up 26% m/m and down 18.8% y/y. Meanwhile, UKA volumes were at 19.3Mt, up 35% m/m and down 31.8% y/y.
- IMO’s decision to delay its Net Zero Framework by one year is expected to accelerate the rise of regional ETS schemes, according to marine fuels testing company VPS.
- TTF Dec25 is set for a net weekly decline and near the monthly low amid mild weather and healthy import supplies.
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STIR: Market Moves Towards Fully Pricing 2 Fed Cuts Through Year-End After ADP
Oct-01 12:31
Dovish adjustments in the U.S. short end following the much softer-than-expected ADP employment reading and negative revisions.
- The release has attracted greater-than-usual attention given the expected delay to the NFP report.
- Market has moved to price 25bp of easing for this month’s meeting, 47bp through December, 69bp through March and 89bp through June. That compares to 23bp, 43bp, 63bp and 83bp heading into the data.
- Note that our macro team has suggested the release should be taken with caution since the ADP series was re-benchmarked in line with the BLS's QCEW re-benchmarking, which resulted in a 43K reduction in jobs in September vs. pre-benchmarked data.
- Comments from House Speaker Johnson, pointing to hope for a breakthrough in government shutdown discussions at some point today, take the edge off the dovish move in more recent trade.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 2Y Buy Post-Data
Oct-01 12:26
- +5,000 TUZ5 104-09.5, buy through 104-08.25 post time offer at 0818:45ET, DV01 $198,200.
- The 2Y contract trades 104-09.5 last (+3.25)
EQUITY OPTIONS: BNP Outright Put Seller
Oct-01 12:24
BNP (19th Dec) 78p, sold at 3.56 in 3.25k.
