EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Gains
Oct-31 12:32
EUAs Dec25 are on track for weekly gains of 0.38%, trading within the 78/t range, as market volatili...
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STIR: Market Moves Towards Fully Pricing 2 Fed Cuts Through Year-End After ADP
Oct-01 12:31
Dovish adjustments in the U.S. short end following the much softer-than-expected ADP employment reading and negative revisions.
- The release has attracted greater-than-usual attention given the expected delay to the NFP report.
- Market has moved to price 25bp of easing for this month’s meeting, 47bp through December, 69bp through March and 89bp through June. That compares to 23bp, 43bp, 63bp and 83bp heading into the data.
- Note that our macro team has suggested the release should be taken with caution since the ADP series was re-benchmarked in line with the BLS's QCEW re-benchmarking, which resulted in a 43K reduction in jobs in September vs. pre-benchmarked data.
- Comments from House Speaker Johnson, pointing to hope for a breakthrough in government shutdown discussions at some point today, take the edge off the dovish move in more recent trade.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 2Y Buy Post-Data
Oct-01 12:26
- +5,000 TUZ5 104-09.5, buy through 104-08.25 post time offer at 0818:45ET, DV01 $198,200.
- The 2Y contract trades 104-09.5 last (+3.25)
EQUITY OPTIONS: BNP Outright Put Seller
Oct-01 12:24
BNP (19th Dec) 78p, sold at 3.56 in 3.25k.
