EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On TTF, Equities Gains
{EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising, supported by gains in European equities on positive earnings news, and a strong TTF rally as threats to Russian supplies and forecasts for warmer weather from the second week of August extended yesterday’s gains. The EUA-TTF intraday correlation hit the height of 0.70 in the morning.
- EUA DEC 25 up 2.12% at 72.15 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.72% at 51.53 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas AUG 25 up 2.5% at 33.72 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas AUG 25 up 2.9% at 82 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 1.3% at 5407.52
- FTSE 100 SEP 25 up 0.8% at 9139
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €70.53/ton CO2e, down 0.14% compared with the previous EU auction at €70.63/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- The EEX has published revised 2025 and new 2026 EUA auction calendars, with the total 2025 auction volume revised down by 14% amid MSR intake, in line with market expectations, while the total 2026 volume is down 25% y/y, according to EEX.
- TTF front month continues to rally following yesterday’s gains from a low of €31.9/MWh after US President Trump announced a new 10-12 day deadline on Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine.
- Poland’s Ministry of Climate and Environment has approved an updated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) through 2030 with a 2040 outlook, aiming for 54% emissions cut by 2030 versus 1990 level, according to ISBnews.
- The EC has approved Denmark’s €36mn State aid scheme to support the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) on domestic routes, it said.
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US FISCAL: Available "Extraordinary" Measures To Ward Off X-Date Pick Up
Treasury reported Friday that as of Jun 25 it had $130B in remaining "extraordinary" measures (of a total $378B available) to ward off an "x-date" of running out of resources before defaulting. That's the highest in 2 weeks.
- Combined with $334B cash as of Jun 25 (after a bit of a buildup after the mid-June tax deadline), that's a total of roughly $465B in total resources available.
- We noted earlier this week that Treasury told Congress that it was required to extend its debt issuance suspension period from Jun 27 to Jul 24, in effect prolonging the use of extraordinary measures while we await a resolution to the debt limit impasse, probably through the fiscal legislation currently going through Congress.
- Realistically, fiscal dynamics so far this year point to potential for Treasury to get into September without running out of cash + extraordinary measures. That seems to be the broad market expectation.
US DATA: Cleveland, Dallas Fed PCE Medians Show Progress But Still Above-Target
The Cleveland and Dallas Fed's median PCE metrics showed a notable drop in May. All indices suggest PCE inflation running above 2%, and higher than the actual core and headline PCE measures, but pressures appear to have cooled from a pickup in the early months of the year.
- The Cleveland Fed's median PCE measure came in at 0.22% M/M, a 10-month low after April's 15-month high 0.31%. This left median PCE at 3.01% on a Y/Y basis, down from 3.06% prior for a the joint-lowest (with Feb) since September 2021.
- The Dallas Fed's annualized median rate fell to 2.01%, from 2.65% prior for a 10-month low. The 6-month annualized rate edged lower to 2.74% (2.76% prior), a 4-month low, with the Y/Y rate ticking down to 2.55% from 2.56%, echoing the Cleveland Fed for the lowest reading since September 2021.
USDCAD TECHS: Pivot Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.2710/3803 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3658 @ 16:23 BST Jun 27
- SUP 1: 1.3618 Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The primary downtrend remains intact and short-term gains appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend. Any reversal higher would instead signal scope for a stronger retracement. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3803.
