EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Fall On EU Equities Losses
Sep-24 11:20
EUAs Dec25 are edging down, weighed by losses in EU equities and influenced by volatility in EU gas. STOXX declined as investor optimism over the Federal Reserve rate cut eased, with focus shifting back to geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, EUAs Sep25 options are set to expire today, with 97% of put options are out-of-money, while 77% for call options.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.74% at 76.22 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.77% at 56.57 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas OCT 25 down 0.8% at 32 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas OCT 25 down 0.7% at 79.73 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.1% at 5467.27
- FTSE 100 DEC 25 down 0.2% at 9264
- EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds increased their net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange for the fifth consecutive week to the highest level since the week ending 14 May 2021 according to the latest COT data as of 19 September.
- UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds raised net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange to an all-time high as of 19 September, according to the latest COT data.
- TTF front month is slightly lower but remains within the €31.6/MWh to €33.1/MWh range from the last week.
- Danish Shipping urges the EU ETS revenue to be used to fund green fuel production and called for alignment with IMO carbon levy, reported by to Safety4Sea.
- Sandbag estimated that US companies would face €351mn in annual CBAM costs on exports to the EU in 2026, equivalent to 0.14% of the value of US goods exported to Europe in 2023, significantly below the $4.7bn (€4bn) estimated by the Trump administration in April.
- Energy from waste could be carbon negative by 2035, while delivering up to 10mn tonnes of carbon removals annually if Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology is deployed rapidly, according to a new report from Baringa, commissioned by enfinium.
- The shipping industry has voiced political concerns over the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework ahead of the vote on 17 October, warning that the IMO could emerge as one of the largest banks, with the carbon levy functioning as a global tax system.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
Aug-25 10:56
- On the commodity front, the medium-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. On the downside, first key support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low. First support is $3311.6, the Aug 20 low.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Aug-25 10:47
- In FX, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1596. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- Strong gains on Friday in GBPUSD signals the end of the recent corrective phase - Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
- USDJPY traded sharply lower Friday highlighting a potential bearish threat. The bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, the 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg.
US TSY FUTURES: September'25-December'25 Roll Update - Massive Volume
Aug-25 10:37
Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete jumped to over a third of outstanding Sep'25 open interest after Friday's massive volume. "First Notice" date next week Friday, August 29. Current roll details:
- TUU5/TUZ5 appr 91,400 from -8.75 to -8.5, -8.75 last; 41% complete
- FVU5/FVZ5 appr 69,500 from -5.25 to -5.0, -5.25 last; 39% complete
- TYU5/TYZ5 appr 198,500 from -1.25 to -1.0, -1.25 last; 38% complete
- UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 138,800 from -0.5 to +0.0, -0.5 last; 37% complete
- USU5/USZ5 appr 25,400 from 12.5 to 13.0, 12.75 last; 41% complete
- WNU5/WNZ5 appr 48,000 from 7.5 to 8.0, 7.75 last; 41% complete
- Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30. Meanwhile, Sep'25 Tsy options will expire LAST Friday, August 22.
