EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Diverge W/W

EUAs are on track for a week-on-week increase of 3.4% supported by gains in EU gas prices, while UKAs are tracking a weekly net decline of around 1.8%, despite gains in EUAs and equities. EUAs are rangebound in Friday’s session with losses in EU gas, while a warmer weather and a downward revision in CWE wind output forecasts may support fossil-fuel burn next week.

• EUA DEC 25 down 0% at 72.71 EUR/MT
• ICE UKA Dec25 down 0.4% at 50.32 GBP/MT
• TTF Gas JUL 25 down 1% at 36.015 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas JUL 25 down 1.1% at 84.45 GBp/therm
• TTF front month has fallen today as the market assesses winter supply risks, with European gas storage now near 50% full, but remains set for a net weekly gain amid optimism around easing US-China trade tensions and supply risks from seasonal maintenance.
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period tightened to 0.67, from 0.64 a day earlier.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level on the day at €13.04/t CO2e.
• The latest German ETS CAP3 auction cleared higher at €72.30/ton CO2e, compared with €71.11/ton CO2e in the previous German auction on 23 May according to EEX.
• Indirect carbon emissions from operations of the four leading AI-focused firms – Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta – increased on average by 150% between 2020 and 2023, amid data centre power demand.
• The European Commission plans to publish its plans for the EU’s 2040 Climate Targets on 2 July, which will involve international carbon credit use, diplomats told Politico.