EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: Carbon Track Weekly Gains On Spot Demand
Sep-19 11:16
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are tracking weekly gains, supported by strong EUAs auction prices amid sustained demand for physical demand ahead of the end-of-month surrender deadline. EUAs/UKAs are edging lower on the day, weighed by losses in EU gas, while TTF movements remain within range.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.58% at 77.39 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 1.41% at 57.37 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas OCT 25 down 0.2% at 32.885 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas OCT 25 up 0.2% at 81.63 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0% at 5459.13
- FTSE 100 SEP 25 down 0.2% at 9220.5
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €76.57/ton CO2e, up 2.07% compared with the previous Germany auction at €75.02/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- TTF front month is relatively steady today and on track for a small net gain on the week supported by the delayed return of Russian supplies and reports that the EC is seeking an earlier phase out of Russian LNG.
- 2024 Climate Targets - The EU Environment council made no material progress towards the finalisation of the 2040 climate target at its meeting on 18 September, with the next step being a 23 Sept vote on rapporteur Ondrej Knotek’s draft report rejecting the target.
- 2035 NDC - The EU Council approved a statement of intent on the 2035 nationally determined contribution (NDC), outlining an indicative 2035 target of 66.25–72.5% GHG emissions reduction versus 1990 levels. The next step will be communicating the statement to the UNFCCC Secretariat and the Paris Agreement Implementation and Compliance Committee, with full NDC submission planned ahead of COP30.
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SWEDEN: Government Projects Recovery In 2026; Economy In Balance In 2027
Aug-20 11:10
The Swedish Government updated economic forecasts here
- "Sweden’s economic recovery began in late 2024 but was interrupted in early 2025 when the US administration announced high tariffs against the EU and the rest of the world"..."The tariff agreements signed over the past few months are expected to reduce the risk of an escalated trade conflict, which is positive for growth both in Sweden and among its neighbours. Swedish households have begun to show optimism after a period of low expectations. Going forward, increased domestic demand is seen as particularly vital for Sweden’s recovery."
- "The prospects for recovery are good. From the second half of 2025, real wage growth, lower interest expenditure and an accommodative fiscal policy are expected to contribute to steady growth in household consumption"
- "Overall, growth is expected to be higher next year, and in 2027 the Swedish economy is predicted to be essentially in balance. "
- "The labour market recovery is expected to be slightly delayed, and employment is forecast to rise at a faster rate in 2026."
US TSYS: Post-MBS React
Aug-20 11:04
- Treasuries pared gains after drop in MBA Mortgage apps from prior - albeit on light volumes (TYU5 under 200k).
- Tsy Sep 10Y contract slipped to 111-24.5 from 111-26, 10Y yield tapped 4.2990% before slipping back to 4.2965%.
- Curves remain flatter: 2s10s -1.178 at 54.432, 5s30s -.896 at 107.346.
EU-BOND AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Aug-20 11:01
The EU has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction next Monday, August 25:
- Up to E2.5bln of the 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EW6)
- Up to E2.0bln of the 3.375% Dec-35 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A4D8KD2)
- Up to E1.5bln of the 3.375% Oct-38 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D74)
