EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: Carbon Rise, Record High Correlation

Robert Peston at ITV posts on X: "The prime minister has just told me that the chancellor’s fiscal rules are “iron clad and here to stay”, that “they won’t be changed”. This is his response to contagion from the shocking Trump-induced fall in US government bond prices, which has seen the interest rate for UK 30-year sovereign debt rise to levels not seen since 1998. He is explicitly trying to reassure lenders to the UK"

• There has been speculation in recent weeks that the fiscal rules could be altered amid the prospect of another tax raising/spending cutting budget to come in the autumn. Speaking on Monday, PM Sir Keir Starmer said the rules 'won't be ignored'.
• Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reves said earlier, when asked if the fiscal rules would remain unchanged for the whole parliament "Yes. Those fiscal rules ... are non-negotiable because they are the bedrock of the stability and security that families and businesses need."
• Nevertheless, this marks the first time the PM has committed to them remaining as-is. 

• The China tariff increase on the US is to 84% from 34% and is applicable from 12:01 China standard time on 10 April (so in a few hours).
• The language has escalated, too.
• From the press release via Google Translate: "The US's practice of escalating tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which seriously infringes on China's legitimate rights and interests and seriously damages the rules-based multilateral trading system."
• Full statement link.

• Treasury futures pared down move briefly after China tariff response with 84% duty on US imports, up from 34%.
• June'25 10Y futures tapped 111-00.5 currently trades 110-20.5 (-26.5), 10Y yield 4.3898 +.0969. Curves bear steepen to new multi-year highs overnight: 2s10s currently +6.369 at 62.482 after tapping 73.84 during Asia hours.
• Stocks come back under pressure: SPX eminis -81.75 at 4938.25.