POWER: EU LEBA Power Volumes Fall in March, Deficit to EEX Narrows

SOFR option volumes picking up ahead of the NY open, chunky put spds and condors joining midcurve call spds. Implied vol rising ahead of this morning's ADP employ data and this afternoon's reciprocal tariff announcement. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have receded vs. late Tuesday levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -4.7bp (-5.3bp), Jun'25 at -21.2bp (-22.1bp), Jul'25 at -37.1bp (-39.1bp), Sep'25 -53.9bp (-56.6bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • Block/screen, 33,000 SFRU5 95.25/95.75 put spds, 2.5 ref 96.22
  • Block/screen, 29,000 0QM5 96.81/97.00 call spds, 5.0 ref 96.615
  • 26,000 0QU5 95.50 puts ref 96.635
  • 3,500 0QM5 97.50 calls ref 96.62
  • 2,000 SFRK5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 broken put condors ref 95.93
  • 8,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.68/95.87/95.93 put condors ref 95.92
  • 13,700 SFRM5 95.68/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors ref 95.92
  • 1,500 SFRM5 96.00/96.25/96.37 broken call flys ref 95.92
  • 2,000 SFRN5 96.12/96.25/96.37 call flys ref 96.205
  • 2,100 2QM5 96.56/96.81 call spds vs. 95.68/95.81 put spds ref 96.555
  • 6,000 0QM5 96.75/97.00 call spds ref 96.595 to -.59
  • +8,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.68/95.87/95.93 put condors, 3.5 vs. 95.895/0.05%
  • Block/screen +13,000 SFRM5 96.12/96.50 call spds 3.75 ref 95.92
• Treasury Options:
  • 1,600 TYM5 112/113 call spds ref 111-26.5
  • 1,100 FVK5 108.5/109/109.25/109.5 broken call condors
  • over 6,000 TYK5 111.5 calls, 55 ref 111-22.5
  • 1,350 TYM5 112/114 call spds vs. 110 puts ref 111-21.5
  • -10,000 TYK5 113.25 calls, 17 ref 111-25
  • over 3,300 TYK5 114.5 calls ref 111-21.5
  • -5,000 Wed wkly 10Y 111.75/112 put spds, 13 ref 111-16.5

Incremental breaks above recent daily highs in Bund futures don’t gather more momentum as 10-Year yields continue to respect the March 5 (post-“whatever it takes”) low at 2.654%.

• GBP400.0mln had been on offer.
• This leaves GBP5.352bln of the linker in issue.