EMISSIONS: EU ETS Trading Activity Rises 35% Y/Y in 2024
Oct-22 09:54
Total EU ETS trading activity rose 35% y/y to 13.7bn tCO2e across 4.7mn transactions in 2024, driven...
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BOE: Analysts Push Back Cut Expectations Post-MPC; Still Less Dovish than Priced
Sep-22 09:52
- There has been a change in analyst views since the September MPC meeting, with the median and modal expectation of the next cut pushed back to February (from November). Note that this is more in line with market pricing (which prices cumulatively 17bp for the February meeting and less than 2bp for November).
- Almost half (10/21) of the analyst views that we tracked have pushed back their estimate of the next cut since the meeting.
- 6/21 look for the next cut in November, 2/21 in December, 11/21 look for February, 2/21 look for April and Santander looks for Bank Rate to end 2026 at 4.00%.
- There have been some tweaks to terminal rate expectations – but these have been much more limited with most analysts pushing cuts later rather than removing them from their forecasts altogether.
- 8/21 look for a terminal rate of 3.50% (the median and modal expectation). Almost half of analysts look for a lower terminal rate, however, with 4/21 looking for 3.25%, 4/21 looking for 3.00% while Citi and Morgan Stanley both look for a terminal 2.75%. NatWest Markets and RBC both see one final 25bp cut as their base case while Santander sees no more cuts through 2026.
- The downside skew to the terminal rate expectations from analysts is in contrast to markets which still don’t fully price 50bp of cuts to 3.50% from here.
- For a full summary of sellside views post-MPC meeting see page 7 of the MNI BOE Review here.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Sep-22 09:48
- In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Friday. Price has breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6748.50, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 6602.01, the 20-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures recently traded through resistance around the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - and the subsequent rally reinforces a bullish theme. The move signals potential for a climb towards 5525.00, the Aug 22 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 5302.00, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme. First support lies at 5405.03, the 20-day EMA.
EU-BOND AUCTION RESULTS: EU-bond results
Sep-22 09:39
| 3.125% Dec-28 EU-bond | 3.375% Dec-35 EU-bond | 2.625% Feb-48 Green EU-bond | |
| ISIN | EU000A3K4EN5 | EU000A4D8KD2 | EU000A3K4DM9 |
| Amount | E2.1bln | E1.659bln | E1.317bln |
| Previous | E2.3bln | E1.951bln | E3bln |
| Avg yield | 2.302% | 3.189% | 3.883% |
| Previous | 2.307% | 3.119% | 3.759% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.33x | 1.43x | 1.26x |
| Previous | 1.45x | 1.66x | |
| Avg Price | 102.504 | 101.598 | 81.408 |
| Low Price | 102.490 | 101.570 | 81.370 |
| Pre-auction mid | 102.468 | 101.495 | 81.221 |
| Prev avg price | 102.744 | 101.523 | 82.173 |
| Prev low price | 102.730 | 101.490 | |
| Prev mid-price | 102.699 | 101.422 | |
| Previous date | 19-May-25 | 25-Aug-25 | 14-Nov-23 |
