POWER: EU End of Day Power Summary: Germany, France Rebound from Mid-Day
CWE August power has rebounded from the mid-day session amid warmer and revised up temperatures from 9 July and into mid-August, which could raise cooling demand and lead to sustained high river temperatures, while Rhine River levels are low.
- Nordic Base Power AUG 25 up 2.3% at 27 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power AUG 25 up 1.7% at 53.1 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power AUG 25 up 0.9% at 81.05 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.7% at 71.57 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas AUG 25 down 0.9% at 33.33 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is on track for a small net weekly gain supported by hot weather forecasts in mid-July, which may boost cooling demand. European LNG imports remain healthy while demand remains muted in Asia.
- EUAs Dec25 are on track for a weekly gain of 1%, loosely following TTF’s 0.98% rise, after briefly touching an eight-week low earlier in the week amid selling pressure from long holders that pushed open interest to a near one-month low.
- EU power demand rose 4% in 1H25, driven by extreme heat and cooling needs, pushing spot prices to multi-month highs. Forecasts for warmer weather from 9 July may lead to rising cooling demand and sustained nuclear curtailments, while low Rhine River levels may also add upward pressure, suggesting this trend may continue.
- Germany’s economy ministry published a draft bill to speed up expansion of geothermal energy in the country, amongst other technologies.
- German new EV registrations in the first half of 2025 grew by 35.1% on the year, accounting for a 17.7% share of total registrations.
- Power has been returning as outages have struck multiple areas across the Czech Republic, including Prague and Liberec.
- Ukraine’s Dtek has reported significant damage to its equipment and two substations in Kyiv following a Russian overnight attack, prompting the use of reserve power sources.
- Italy will launch its first-ever storage market auction in September as part of a broader national strategy to expand renewable energy and storage systems.
- Estonia has launched the EIA process for a planned 1GW power cable with Latvia, with the EIA to be completed by 2027.
- The UK has given the green light to the 1.5GW Mona Offshore Wind Farm in Welsh waters
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PORTUGAL: President Accepts Lineup Of New Centre-Right Minority Gov't
Reuters reports that, according to the office of President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the president has accepted the cabinet lineup presented to him by PM Luis Montenegro. Expresso reports that "As the Prime Minister himself has said, it is expected that a large part of the outgoing government will be reappointed, but with "renewed energy". [...] Paulo Rangel and Miranda Sarmento will continue in the Foreign Affairs and Finance portfolios, Miguel Pinto Luz will keep the Infrastructure portfolio, Ana Paula Martins should continue in Health, although at least one Secretary of State will change. Fernando Alexandre will also be reappointed in Education."
- Following the 18 May legislative election, Montenegro plans to lead a minority gov't formed by his centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) supported by the conservative People’s Party (CDS-PP). The gov't holds 91 seats in the 230-member Assembly of the Republic. While this is more than the 80 seats won in the 2024 election, it still leaves the gov't vulnerable to defeats on budget bills and confidence motions.
- PM Montenegro has been vague on who he will seek to work with to pass legislation. For the past year, efforts focused on the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), but these eventually failed amid disagreements over the budget and the Spinumviva case.
- The right-wing nationalist Chega now sits as the main opposition with 60 seats to the PS' 58. To date, no party has worked with Chega, maintaining a cordon sanitaire or 'firewall' around the party.
STIR: SOFR Option Update
Late morning SOFR options still leaning towards downside put spds even as underlying futures see-saw around post-ISM data highs. Projected rate cut pricing continues to gain vs. morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 at -1.1bp (-0.7bp), Jul'25 at -7.8bp (-7.4bp), Sep'25 at -23.9bp (-22.7bp), Oct'25 at -37.8bp (-35.9bp), Dec'25 at -55.2bp (-52.4bp). Latest trade includes:
- +4,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.68/95.81 put trees, 1.0
- +4,000 0QM5 96.62/96.87 call spds .75 over 3QM5 96.50/96.75 call spds
- +15,000 0QZ5 95.00 puts, 1.5 ref 96.77
- +3,000 SFRH8 97.50/98.50 call spds w/ 98.00/99.00 call spd strip, 33.5
- +5,000 SFRZ5 95.56/95.68/95.81 put fly w/ 96.00/96.12/96.25 call fly strip 3.5
- -4,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/96.00 put flys 2.5 over 95.68/95.81 put spds
FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $606 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $606 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
