POWER: EU End of Day Power Summary: CWE, Italy January Power Rebound

Dec-03 16:28

CWE and Italian January power futures have rebounded to trade higher on the day, partly due to a recovery in EU gas prices. Nordics January power settled lower with an upward revision in hydro balances and hydro stocks slightly widening the surplus to the ten-year average. 

  • Nordic Base Power JAN 26 down 1.1% at 61.4 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power JAN 26 up 4.8% at 70.5 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power JAN 26 up 0.8% at 100.71 EUR/MWh
  • Italy Base Power JAN 26 up 1.1% at 114.18 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 81.77 EUR/MT
  • TTF front month is slightly higher as the market monitors limited signs of progress towards a Ukraine peace deal and digests EU plans to phase out Russian gas imports.
  • EUAs Dec25 are struggling to find a clear direction on Wednesday, after late morning gains following the CoT report showing funds increased bullish bets to an all-time high.
  • Investment Funds' net short positioning in ICE German power rose to their highest since 26 September.
  • Germany is facing a power supply gap of 10-24GW in 2030 during peak-demand periods.
  • Germany’s association for industrial energy (VKI) is urging the government to return reserve power plants to the wholesale power market to mitigate short-term price spikes.
  • Germany’s latest rooftop solar PV and solar PV on noise barriers tender with deadline 1 October received 140 bids for 310MW of capacity, compared with 283MW of offered capacity.
  • The latest German biomass tender with 1 October deadline was oversubscribed with 807 bids submitted for 940MW of capacity, compared with 813MW of offered capacity.
  • Planned maintenance at the 2GW IFA power interconnector between the UK and France has been extended by one day to end on 4 December at 16:00 UTC.
  • EdF has removed the Cruas 1 nuclear reactor from the corrosion plan for 2025.
  • Norway’s electricity consumption is set to rise by 18TWh through 2030, while new generation adds only 3TWh, pushing the country toward a 5TWh net importer position.
  • Nordic hydropower reserves last week declined by 1.9 percentage points to 76.01% of capacity, slightly widening the small surplus to the ten-year average.
  • OMV Petrom’s 860MW Brazi gas-fired power plant in Romania remains offline until 8-9 December due to a local water shortage, with full output expected next week.
  • Bulgaria has signed a major contract to build two new nuclear reactors, units 7-8, each with a capacity of around 1GW, at the 1.8GW Kozloduy nuclear complex.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Extending Early Lows

Nov-03 16:24
  • Treasuries are flirting with morning lows in the last few minutes, no obvious headline driver or Block flow - but correlation to Bunds persists as the two trade lower. See 1123 bullet
  • Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades -3 at session low of 112-18.5, 10Y yield +.407 at 4.1182%.
  • The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 112-26+, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement near-term. A continuation lower would open 112-06, the Sep 25 low and the next key support.
  • Reminder - Tsys broke lower in the lead-up to the NY open after rumors of unexpectedly large corporate issuance from Alphabet ($15B minimum over 8 tranches), and Novartis 7-tranche announced. Larger than expected issuance could be fueling move as prop accts join the speculative selling fray. 

EGBS: Support In Bunds Pierced As Fresh Wave Of Selling Goes Through

Nov-03 16:23

Monitoring a wave of selling in major EGB futures, with Bund futures registering fresh session lows of 129.09 (-31 ticks today). Support at the 50-day EMA (129.13) has been pierced, clearance of which would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 128.92 (61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg).

  • Haven’t seen an obvious headline trigger for the move just yet, though a fresh bid in crude oil futures may be adding pressure to core FI.
  • The best volumes of the session have gone through in Bund futures since 1600GMT, with almost 70k lots have traded.

MNI EXCLUSIVE: Portuguese Debt Management Office On Demand Landscape

Nov-03 16:22

The Portuguese sovereign debt management office discusses a change in the demand landscape for their bonds.- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com