POWER: EU End of day Power Summary: CWE February Power Falls
CWE front-month power futures are holding onto strong losses in Monday’s session amid lower EU gas prices and an upward revision in temperature and wind forecasts. Nordic February is edging down with below-normal temperatures and a downward revision in Sweden’s hydro balance weighed against strong losses in EU gas and power markets.
- Nordic Base Power FEB 26 down 0.8% at 65.75 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power FEB 26 down 4.1% at 95.43 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power FEB 26 down 5.4% at 70.2 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 26 down 1.2% at 87.23 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas FEB 26 down 5.4% at 27.43 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has fallen to reverse gains seen late last week with warmer and windier weather expected later this week and amid strong LNG import supplies.
- EUAs Dec26 are falling to the lowest level since 19 December amid session selling pressure as traders return from the holiday period, with daily trading volume reaching its highest level since 18 December.
- A severe cold wave is bringing frigid temperatures, snow, and ice across much of Europe, driving up heating demand, disrupting transport, and prompting France to issue orange weather warnings for 23 departments.
- EdF has issued a 24hour strike notice starting Monday 21:00 CET.
- French power consumption rose near 87.9GW on Monday morning 10:15 CET, the highest since January 2021, with cold weather lifting demand for electric heating.
- French net power exports rose to 92.3TWh in 2025, up from 89TWh in 2024, marking a new record.
- German power generation was largely unchanged on the year at 437.6TWh in 2025, with the share of renewables slightly increasing.
- Germany installed 17.5GW of new solar PV capacity in 2025, slightly down from 17.7GW in 2024 and below the level needed to reach the country’s 2030 targets
- Elia’s CEO Bernard Gustin suggested operators of network infrastructure should be able to allocate connections to energy project that are ready, meaning to replace the “first come first serve” process.
- Planning approvals for battery, wind, and solar projects in the UK nearly doubled in 2025 to more than 45GW, driven by a surge in battery storage and offshore wind.
- Spain’s Miteco has launched a €90mn aid program to support innovative pumped-storage hydroelectric projects, aiming to add nearly 1GW of capacity and 7GWh of storage by 2035.
- The unplanned 552MW curtailment at the 1.1GW Forsmark 1 nuclear reactor has been shortened to 5 January 21:30 CET from 7 January.
- Gen2 Energy has secured a grid capacity reservation of 195MW for its green hydrogen project at Nesbruket in Norway.
- Polish grid operator PSE has confirmed its transmission infrastructure is technically ready to receive electricity from the first offshore wind farms.
- Poland Ze Pak’s 562MW Turek CCGT unit will miss its January 2026 capacity obligation as it pushes back commissioning to 3Q27.
- Bulgaria’s electricity consumption increased by 4.88% on the year in 2025 to 38.76TWh.
- The Czech government reiterated its intention to take over the power generation units of CEZ.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bull Channel Breakout
- RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4131 High Nov 21
- RES 2: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 1: 1.3939/4016 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3865 @ 16:35 GMT Dec 5
- SUP 1: 1.3853 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3840 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3812 Low Sep 23
- SUP 4: 1.3779 Low Sep 22
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces a bear theme. The pair has breached an important support at 1.3942, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The break highlights a stronger bear cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3840 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4016, 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: FOMC Decision Dominates, Post Shutdown Data Catch-Up
- Next week’s US calendar is dominated by the FOMC decision on Wednesday, with a third consecutive 25bp cut almost fully priced.
- Expect it to be a contentious meeting however, with many arguing for a pause not least whilst they’re still relatively in the dark on key official data releases following the government shutdown.
- Fed Chair Powell opted for a surprisingly hawkish tone at the late October press conference, highlighting a deeply divided committee on prospects for another cut in December.
- The “fog” had appeared to win out until NY Fed’s Williams, a senior permanent voter, gave unusually explicit guidance on still seeing room “for a further adjustment in the near term”. With no pushback from FOMC members or media briefings, it appears this message has approval from the core of the FOMC which should be enough to see a rate cut this month. The likely catalyst was the further increase in the unemployment rate to 4.44% back in September, although subsequent tracking suggests stabilization and jobless claims data don’t show any signs of deterioration.
- We’ll be looking for the number of hawkish dissents (we’d be surprised if anyone joins Miran dissenting for a 50bp cut) and expect a greater number to object to a cut in the 2025 dot plot, whilst the distribution of dots for 2026 should be in greater focus.
- As for the economic projections, we expect upward revisions to GDP growth but downward revisions to near-term core PCE inflation with tariff passthrough proving less severe than previously feared.
Aside from the Fed, we also receive two months worth of JOLTS data along with other delayed releases as the shutdown data backlog is slowly caught up.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Wave Extends
- RES 4: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.6649 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6630 @ 16:32 GMT Dec 5
- SUP 1: 0.6580/6533 High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6517 Low Nov 27
- SUP 3: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
- SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact, having printed 10 consecutive sessions of higher highs. Recent gains have cleared a number of important short-term resistance points, strengthening a bull theme and highlighting scope for a continuation higher. Today’s rally has resulted in a breach of 0.6640, 76.4% of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg. This opens 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and key resistance. Key support to watch is at 0.6533, 20-day EMA.
