EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Net Decline
Jun-20 15:38
EUAs Dec25 are tracking a 4% weekly net decline and edging up on the day, tightening correlation with equities, while tracking some TTF movements intraday. Meanwhile, UKAs Dec25 are edging down on the day and tracking a weekly net loss of near 7% amid influence from EUAs losses.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.34% at 72.99 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 1.3% at 51 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas JUL 25 down 2.2% at 40.72 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas JUL 25 down 2.5% at 95.7 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 1% at 5249.52
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period declined further to 0.35.
- Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period tightened slightly to 0.33.
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained at 0.44.
- Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period remained at 0.34.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent widened to €13.38/t CO2e from the €12.34/t CO2e in the previous day.
- The latest Germany EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €71.97/ton CO2e, down 4.50% compared with the previous Germany auction at €75.36/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- TTF front month has pulled back from a peak of €41.9/MWh but is still set for a net weekly gain with focus on LNG supply risks due to the Israel-Iran conflict.
- LEBA OTC physically delivered EUAs volumes dropped in May 2025 to 143Mt, down 16% m/m and 45% y/y. In contrast, UKA volumes rose to 23.5Mt, up 37% m/m and 13% y/y.
- COtwo Advisors has launched the first Exchange Traded Product (ETP) for physical EUAs under the ticker CTWO on NYSE.
- New technologies can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the global LNG by more 220Mt CO2e per year, more than 60% of total emissions from the supply chain, according to the IEA’s latest report.
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STIR: Just 33-34bp Of Cuts Priced Out To Oct FOMC
May-21 15:33
- Fed Funds implied rates are a touch off highs but price close to the fewest cuts for after the Oct FOMC decision with a cumulative 33.5bps.
- There has been little sign of spillover from WTI futures giving up 1% gains initially on a report that Israel is preparing to strike Iran, now -0.4% on the day.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 20.5bp Sep, 33.5bp Oct and 51bp Dec.
- SOFR implied yields are 5bps higher in late 2026 contracts, with the terminal yield of 3.38% (SFRZ6) still within recent ranges.
- Barkin (non-voter) and Bowman (voter) are in a Fed Listens event at 1215ET. Bowman won’t offer any remarks. Barkin didn’t touch on mon pol in a speech yesterday although noted on May 9 that consumer spending and business investment is still very solid although it’s not a given that firms can raise prices on tariffs.
- Coming later, but with greater implications much further out the curve, the 20Y auction at 1300ET and possibly a House Rules vote on the Trump bill.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 42.13%)
May-21 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 42.13%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 37.61% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 3.47% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.92% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.21
US: Trump To Meet With Conservatives At 15:00ET To Urge Support For Megabill
May-21 15:28
Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reporting that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House at 15:00 ET 20:00 BST. Sherman notes that Trump, "is expected to tell the HFC that the bill needs to pass today," referring to the 'Big Beautiful' reconciliation bill.
- As noted in previous bullet, the move is consistent with a strategy utilised by Johnson and Trump throughout this Congress to personally whip individual conservative House Representatives on key House votes. See: US: Speaker Johnson Says There Is "Chance" Of A Vote On Megabill Today
- Johnson and Trump are likely to impress on conservatives that passing the House reconciliation bill today is crucial to minimise the risk of attendance problems caused by the upcoming Congressional recess.
- Trump is likely to use his authority to informally endorse more deficit reduction measures in future revisions to the bill, as the package next heads to the Senate, where it is likely to be rewritten and returned to the House.
- The White House meeting keeps open the possibility that Johnson could schedule a vote in the House today. If a vote doesn't come this evening, Johnson has promised to keep the chamber in session indefinitely until the bill is passed.
- Note: The House Rules Committee is still in session and debating amendments to the bill. The panel is yet to unveil any updated measures.
