EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Net Decline

• Fed Funds implied rates are a touch off highs but price close to the fewest cuts for after the Oct FOMC decision with a cumulative 33.5bps.
• There has been little sign of spillover from WTI futures giving up 1% gains initially on a report that Israel is preparing to strike Iran, now -0.4% on the day.  
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 20.5bp Sep, 33.5bp Oct and 51bp Dec.
• SOFR implied yields are 5bps higher in late 2026 contracts, with the terminal yield of 3.38% (SFRZ6) still within recent ranges.
• Barkin (non-voter) and Bowman (voter) are in a Fed Listens event at 1215ET. Bowman won’t offer any remarks. Barkin didn’t touch on mon pol in a speech yesterday although noted on May 9 that consumer spending and business investment is still very solid although it’s not a given that firms can raise prices on tariffs.
• Coming later, but with greater implications much further out the curve, the 20Y auction at 1300ET and possibly a House Rules vote on the Trump bill. 

• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 42.13%)
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 37.61% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 3.47% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.92% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.21

Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reporting that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House at 15:00 ET 20:00 BST. Sherman notes that Trump, "is expected to tell the HFC that the bill needs to pass today," referring to the 'Big Beautiful' reconciliation bill. 

• As noted in previous bullet, the move is consistent with a strategy utilised by Johnson and Trump throughout this Congress to personally whip individual conservative House Representatives on key House votes. See: US: Speaker Johnson Says There Is "Chance" Of A Vote On Megabill Today
• Johnson and Trump are likely to impress on conservatives that passing the House reconciliation bill today is crucial to minimise the risk of attendance problems caused by the upcoming Congressional recess.
• Trump is likely to use his authority to informally endorse more deficit reduction measures in future revisions to the bill, as the package next heads to the Senate, where it is likely to be rewritten and returned to the House.
• The White House meeting keeps open the possibility that Johnson could schedule a vote in the House today. If a vote doesn't come this evening, Johnson has promised to keep the chamber in session indefinitely until the bill is passed.
• Note: The House Rules Committee is still in session and debating amendments to the bill. The panel is yet to unveil any updated measures.