EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Gains
Nov-28 16:18
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising today and remain on track for weekly gains of roughly 3.5% and 1% respectively. Both markets have diverged from TTF this week and were supported by strong gains in EU equities, driven by rising Federal rate-cut expectations and progress on the Ukraine peace deal.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.19% at 83.19 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 2.19% at 58.32 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 down 1.2% at 29.021 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 down 1.1% at 75.67 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.3% at 5668.19
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €82.6/ton CO2e, up 2.65% compared with the previous Germany auction at €80.47/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 49) - A total of 16.8mn EUAs will be auctioned next week across four auction sessions. The latest EU ETS auction cleared at €82.6/ton CO2e, up 2.65% w/w, reaching the highest level since Oct 2023.
- The medium-term trend condition in ICE EUA futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle high. This confirms a resumption of the trend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on €84.50, the Jan 30 high and a key resistance. On the downside, support to watch lies at €79.11, the 50-day EMA.
- The ECB has published updated climate-related statistical indicators, confirming that transition risk and portfolio emissions across the euro area financial sector continue to fall.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-29 16:04
- EUR/USD: Nov04 $1.1635-40(E1.3bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct31 Y152.50($1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: Oct31 C$1.3500($1.1bln)
MNI EXCLUSIVE: EC inflation forecasts will have to take account of ETS2
Oct-29 15:54
European Commission inflation forecasts will have to take account of the ETS2 carbon-trading scheme..-- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
BOC: MNI BoC Review-Oct 2025: Pause Seen With Rates “About Right”
Oct-29 15:53
We've just published our review of the October Bank of Canada meeting - Download Full Report Here
- Along with the expected 25bp cut to an overnight rate of 2.25%, a key phrase from the BOC’s October policy statement drove a mildly hawkish market reaction by signalling an intention to hold rates steady at upcoming meetings (vs market/analyst expectations split between a further 25bp cut or a post-October pause coming into this meeting).
- The key phrase in the statement was: "If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment."
- Though Governing Council didn’t close the door to another cut ("If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast”), the language about rates being “about right” was repeated a few times in the post-meeting press conference, reinforcing the perception that the BOC envisages holding rates in future meetings in its base case, after having reduced policy rates by 275bp in this cycle.
- Terminal BOC overnight rate expectations concluded the press conference at around 2.15%, versus 2.12-2.13% coming into the meeting – suggesting expectations are now leaning more toward an indefinite hold rather than another cut in the cycle.
- The Canadian dollar benefited as well, with USDCAD extending losses through the press conference to move through the 1.3900 handle.
- We haven’t seen any Canada bank analyst view changes as yet. Coming into the meeting, 7 Canadian banks had been split 3/4 in favour of another cut in this cycle beyond October; BMO analysts wrote after the decision they still anticipate another 25bp reduction though we await Desjardins’ and National’s verdicts.
