EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Gains
Oct-31 16:28
{EEUAs Dec25 are on track for weekly gains of 0.11%, trading within the €78/t range, as market volatility continues to ease, reflected in the ongoing downward trend of the volatility indicator. UKAs Dec25 are on track for 3% weekly gains to hit 10-day high following five consecutive winning sessions. Open interest on 28 Oct in UKAs Dec25 hit the lowest level since late Aug.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.28% at 78.45 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.61% at 56.28 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 down 0.8% at 31.13 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 down 0.8% at 80.8 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.7% at 5660.52
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €78.66/ton CO2e, up 0.24% compared with the previous Germany auction at €78.47/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- A medium-term uptrend in ICE EUA futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade above support. The level to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, currently at €76.83. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. Sights are on €80.37, the Oct 10 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open €82.12, the Feb 12 high.
- LEBA OTC physically delivered EUAs volumes in September 2025 were at 163Mt, up 26% m/m and down 18.8% y/y. Meanwhile, UKA volumes were at 19.3Mt, up 35% m/m and down 31.8% y/y.
- IMO’s decision to delay its Net Zero Framework by one year is expected to accelerate the rise of regional ETS schemes, according to marine fuels testing company VPS.
- TTF Dec25 is set for a net weekly decline and near the monthly low amid mild weather and healthy import supplies.
- Global CO2 emissions are expected to peak around 2026 before beginning a gradual decline, according to Rystad Energy.
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US: Senate Rejects GOP Funding Bill, Shutdown Continues
Oct-01 16:27
The United States Senate has rejected a House Republican funding bill for the third time, ensuring the US government will remain shut until at least Friday. There was no change in the vote count, with all Republicans (except Senator Rand Paul [R-KY]) and three Democrats voting in favour of the CR. The vote followed a separate ballot on a Democrat-led funding bill that also failed. Both outcomes were expected.
- Democrat Senators John Fetterman (D-PA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), and (Democrat-aligned Independent) Angus King (I-ME) voted in favour of the CR, as they did yesterday.
- Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), and retiring Gary Peters (D-MI), the group that (along with the above and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer [D-NY]) voted to keep the government open in March, again voted against the CR.
- A short time ago, Max Cohen at Punchbowl News reported that Shaheen "says she will continue to vote no on GOP CR [and] thinks she can get a deal that includes an ACA credit fix when the House returns... says she’s in talks with Republicans on this."
- While there hasn't been any movement on the vote tally, a bipartisan group of Senators huddled on the floor for an extended period, which might suggest some informal discussions are underway.
- Senator Peters, one of the above swing votes, and Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), who has floated a one-year extension to the Obamacare subsidies as a potential offramp, were among the group.
- Burgess Everett at Semafor notes, "From what I could tell one thing beyond discussed on the floor that Dems are wondering if there’s a shorter term CR that could set up quicker negotiations on the ACA subsidies"
US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Health Care & Utilities Outperforming
Oct-01 16:15
- Stocks gaining ahead midday Wednesday, political distractions at bay as focus turns to fundamentals rather than the US Government shutdown as of midnight Tuesday. Additional support for equities could be tied to the Supreme Court denying Pres Trump's demand to fire Fed Gov Cook, allowing her to stay on at least until oral argument on the case is heard in January 2026.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up up 56.81 points (0.12%) at 46453.89, S&P E-Minis up 6.75 points (0.1%) at 6745.5, Nasdaq up 39.5 points (0.2%) at 22698.78.
- Leading gainers ahead midday included Health Care and Utility sector shares, pharmaceuticals leading the former: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals +9.06%, Moderna +8.75%, Biogen +7.67%, Amgen +6.75% and Eli Lilly +6.66%.
- The Utilities sector was buoyed by AES, the energy company surging 16% higher in the first half as wires reported BlackRock's GIP is in advanced talks to purchase the company. Follow-through support for other energy companies includes: Constellation Energy +3.79%, Vistra +3.33%, PG&E +3.18% and NextEra Energy +2.41%.
- Conversely, Materials and Communication Services sectors led decliners by midday. Weighing on Materials: Corteva -7.05%, Ecolab -1.95%, Linde -1.92% and Eastman Chemical -1.53%. Meanwhile, News Corp -5.62%, Interpublic Group -4.12% and Omnicom Group -3.95% weighed on the Communication sector in the first half.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-01 16:00
- EUR/USD: Oct03 $1.1700(E1.2bln), $1.1845-55(E2.2bln), $1.1875(E1.2bln); Oct06 $1.1700(E1.1bln); Oct07 $1.1650(E1.8bln), $1.1750(E1.0bln), $1.1820(E1.7bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct03 Y148.00($1.0bln); Oct06 Y147.00($1.3bln)
- EUR/GBP: Oct03 Gbp0.8785-05
- AUD/USD: Oct03 $0.6600(A$1.5bln); Oct06 $0.6700(A$1.1bln)
- NZD/USD: Oct03 $0.6450(N$1.2bln)
