EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Gains

EUAs Dec25 are on track for a 2.76% weekly gain, supported by near 4% gains in EU equities amid strong earnings and optimism over potential ceasefire in Ukraine. UKA Dec25 are on track for a 4.10% weekly gain, hitting the one-week high and standing above all 10, 50, 100-day moving average, supported by gains in the EUAs and EU equities, and the BOE rate cut. EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising today, supported by the continued winning streak in EU equities and warmer weather ahead.

• EUA DEC 25 up 1.73% at 73.01 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 1.94% at 52.03 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas SEP 25 down 2% at 32.3 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas SEP 25 down 2.5% at 79.05 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 0.4% at 5352.61
• The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €72.14/ton CO2e, up 1.41% compared with the previous Germany auction at €71.14/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• Last week’s gains in ICE EUA futures initially resulted in a move through resistance at €72.79, the Jul 3 high. However, prices have faded since - instead pushing prices closer to the middle of the recent range. The next downside level to watch remains at €68.71, the May 19 low. A clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish theme and open €66.44, a Fibonacci retracement. Any continuation higher would open €76.75, the Jun 13 high and a key bull trigger.
• TTF front-month reversed earlier gains to trade lower on Bloomberg’s report that the US and Russia are discussing a deal to lock in Russia’s occupation of territory seized during its invasion of Ukraine in order to reach a peace agreement.
• European stocks gained near 4% this week, on track for their best week since May amid strong earnings and optimism over a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the 15% US chip tariff ceiling for the EU also supported the upside.
• Markets are also watching developments around US Federal Reserve, with expectations for a rate cut in Sep as the Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who voted a rate cut, can potentially replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Bloomberg reported on 8 Aug.
• The EC opened a consultation on climate target and energy strategy for the 2025-2029 mandate ahead of the COP30 in November, it said.
• EnBW is selling its 50% stake in lignite-fired power station and will cease generating power using lignite by the end of 2025, which is expected to will cut annual emissions in its portfolio by up to 2.5mn tonnes CO2e, while increasing the share of renewable energies to 64%, it said.