EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Track Weekly Decline
Sep-26 15:38
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are on track for 1.88% and 5.56% weekly losses, weighed by eased buying interest of physical EUAs ahead of the surrender deadline. Meanwhile, EUAs and UKAs are edging up today, supported by a near 1% intraday rebound in TTF since noon and gains in EU equities on higher-than-expected US personal spending data.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.15% at 75.87 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 3.25% at 54.26 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 0.4% at 32.6 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas OCT 25 up 0% at 81.1 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.9% at 5491.41
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €75.17/ton CO2e, down 1.83% compared with the previous Germany auction at €76.57/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. A fresh cycle high last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a move towards €78.73, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch lies at €68.71, the May 30 low.
- EUA Dec25 options is trading with historically low implied volatility at 25.79% as of 25 Sep, suggesting that traders are not anticipating major swings in the short term.
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is urging EU leaders to lift the bloc’s ban on CO2-emitting vehicle production from 2035, according to Reuter.
- TTF front month is holding onto gains yesterday but still within the €31.4/MWh to $33.44/MWh range seen so far this month.
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FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.020%(ALLOT 28.28%)
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US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper as Tsys Rebound w/ Bunds & Oats
Aug-27 15:23
- Tsy futures have reversed course - extending highs in 2s-10s in the last five minutes, apparently following German Bund and French Oat contracts. No obvious headline driver or block flow, early month-end buying possible.
- Dec'25 10Y contract taps 112-09.5, attention is on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-19 initially, a Fibonacci projection
- Euro Bund: RXU5 at 129.83 latest is through the second resistance level for the day at 129.78 (50-day EMA). Next up 130.06 (Aug 14 high).
- Tsy curves twist steeper: 2s10s +3.989 at 62.038 (nearing mid-April's 3Y highs).
