EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise W/W on Equities

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are on track for a weekly gain of 2.10% and 2.38% respectively, supported by FTSE100’s 1.36% gains on trade deal optimism and strong earnings release, while diverging from TTF’s 3% losses from muted demand and steady storage injection rates. Meanwhile, open interest in EUAs and UKAs Dec25 as of 24 July reached the highest level since early April and an all-time high, respectively, indicating increased market participation and a rise in long positions this week.

• EUA DEC 25 up 0.6% at 71.34 EUR/MT
• ICE UKA Dec25 down 0.5% at 50.07 GBP/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 25 up 0.3% at 32.46 EUR/MWh
• Estoxx 50 down 0.3% at 5339.12
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period at -0.21.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period at 0.75.
• Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period at 0.24.
• The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €70.22/ton CO2e, up 0.77% compared with the previous Germany auction at €69.68/ton CO2e.
• A short-term bearish theme in ICE EUA futures remains in place and recent gains appear - for now - corrective. Attention is on support at €69.60, the May 19 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and open €66.44, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, first resistance to watch is unchanged at €72.79, the Jul 3 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal.
• The EC opened call of evidence on all investments vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including both legislative and non-legislative measures.
• The UN’s highest court has ruled that States have a legal obligation to “protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions”, reinforcing international climate commitments under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• ArcelorMittal Poland, the country’s largest steel producer, will temporarily shut down one of its plants due to high energy and carbon costs, import pressure and lack of European market protections.
• Foresight, a British clean energy investment manager, has called for a dual-market option for Greenhouse Gas Removals (GGR) credits under the UK ETS, which would allow developers and credit owners to trade in both the UK ETS and voluntary markets.
• The EU Commission has given a positive preliminary assessment of Austria’s request for €1.62bn in Recovery and Resilience Facility funds under NextGenerationEU, with investments including decarbonisation of buildings.