EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise To Record High
{EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising to their highest levels since 11 February 2025 and 13 July 2023, respectively, supported by continued bullish sentiment and TTF influence on the day. The gains follow Germany’s confirmation of the timeline for introducing an industrial power price in the previous session, which was interpreted as a bullish signal for a potential increase in industrial emissions. Both contracts have stayed in overbought territory since moving into it in previous session.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.23% at 82.2 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.57% at 58.31 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 2.1% at 32.405 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 up 3% at 84.75 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.4% at 5654.6
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €81.26/tCO2e, hitting the highest level since 10 February and breaching the €80/tCO2e for the first time since 11 February, up compared with the previous EU auction at €79.3/tCO2e according to EEX.
- A medium-term uptrend in ICE EUA futures remains intact and Monday’s strong rally reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared resistance at €80.37, the Oct 10 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on €82.12 next, the Feb 12 high. Key support to monitor is €77.06, the 50-EMA.
- BNEF expected slightly bullish outlook for EU ETS in November as industrial activity could rise.
- TTF has risen further from its end-October low of €31/MWh as the market weighs supply-demand fundamentals amid a downtrend in wind forecasts this week and through the weekend.
- EU environment ministers remain split on the thresholds of international credit under 2040 climate target, according to representatives in Environmental Council.
- Czechia and Hungary oppose the 2040 climate target, citing potential economic risks.
- The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said that current policies would reduce global emissions by only 10% by 2035, short of the 60% reduction necessary to meet Paris Agreement target, according to the UN’s latest report.
- The EU Environmental Council delayed its planned afternoon session that was originally scheduled for 14:00 GMT, with no further details or revised timeline provided, according to the Council’s live broadcast.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4045 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3989 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3953 @ 16:02 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 1.3897/3825 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and yesterday’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3825, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
- PRICE: 0.6603 @ 16:01 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6558. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: September's Coupon Auctions Were Generally Solid (2/2)
September’s coupon auctions were generally solid, with three lines trading through, two coming out on the screws and two tailing slightly.
- Looking through the lens of MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), five lines saw positive readings while two saw negative readings.
- The 3-year sale was the strongest auction of the month according to MNI’s RSI. The 3-year line traded through 0.7bps, the largest stop through in seven months. Meanwhile, the primary dealer take-up was just 8.4%, the lowest on record (data going back to 2003).
- The weakest sale of the month was the last – the 7-year line. This line saw the second consecutive 0.5bp tail, with the 12.0% primary dealer take-up above August’s 9.8% and July’s record low 4.1%.
September Auction Review:
- 2Y Note on-the-screws: 3.571% vs. 3.571% WI.
- 2Y FRN: 0.200% high margin vs. 0.195% prior
- 3Y Note trade-through: 3.485% vs. 3.492% WI.
- 5Y Note tail: 3.710% vs 3.709% WI.
- 7Y Note tail: 3.953% vs. 3.948% WI.
- 10Y Note trade-through: 4.033% vs. 4.047% WI.
- 10Y TIPS: 1.734% high yield vs. 1.985% prior
- 20Y Bond trade-through: 4.613% vs 4.615% WI.
- 30Y Bond on-the-screws: 4.651% vs. 4.651% WI.
