EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise To Record High

{EUAs Dec25 are rising and returning to the €70 level since late April, tracking EU gas upticks in the morning, while carbon held steadily in the afternoon despite gas erasing gains. Meanwhile, UKAs Dec25 are rising to their highest level since June 2024, continuing its fifth winning sessions, supported by EUAs gains on the day and growing bullish sentiment ahead of the EU-UK Summit on May 19. 

• EUA DEC 25 up 2.7% at 71.14 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 2.19% at 51.86 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas JUN 25 down 0.7% at 34.51 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas JUN 25 down 0.9% at 82.99 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 down 0.4% at 5205
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained high at 0.6.
• Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period weakened to two-week low at 0.48.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.78.
• Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period weakened to one-week low at 0.59.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €10.16/t CO2e.
• Short-term gains in ICE EUA futures are considered corrective. However, the contract has traded through the 50-day EMA - at €68.44. This signals scope for a stronger recovery and exposes €74.23, the Mar 19 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on €63.61, the Apr 22 low, where a break would highlight the end of the corrective cycle and signal a resumption of the downtrend.
• EUA POSITIONING –  Speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bullish in the week to 2 May, with net long positionings still well below this year’s high in early February.
• UKA POSITIONING –  Speculator positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange continued to be bullish in the week to 2 May, with net long positionings hitting record high.
• EEX reported that EUAs secondary market trading volume in April 2025 dropped 63% year-on-year, it said.
• IEA reported that methane emissions from fossil fuel production in 2024 are near historic highs, driven by a surge in major leaks from oil and gas operations, according to its Global Methane Tracker.