EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On Unclear Direction
Jun-18 15:35
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are edging up near close amid rising buying interest in the final two trading hours, loosening intraday correlation with TTF during that period, despite carbon and gas had been moving in tandem with each other for most of the times on the day.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.12% at 74.73 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.77% at 53.71 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas JUL 25 down 1.8% at 38.59 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas JUL 25 down 1.8% at 91.29 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.4% at 5269
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period tightened slightly to 0.58 from the 0.55 on the previous day.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained at 0.42.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €11.98/t CO2e.
- TTF front-month continues to be supported on fears the Israel-Iran conflict could disrupt LNG. Gains eased after Israel’s energy minister said exports would resume once the IDF approves.
- EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds net long positionings in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange increased for the second consecutive week to the highest since early April, according to the latest COT data as of 6 June.
- UKA POSITIONING – Speculator positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange resume bullish bets after cutting the bets to the lowest level since late April, according to the latest COT data as of 13 June.
- Research Institute, Oeko Institute, calls for separate targets for international carbon credits or carbon removals within the EU’s 2040 climate target, it said.
- EUAs pulled back 1% from intraday high to intraday low in the morning, tracking sharper TTF intraday decline of 2.18%, following the Israel energy minister said that gas exports will potentially resume in the coming hours or days.
- EUAs Jun25 implied volatility as of 17 June rose to a two-week high ahead of options expiry next week on 25 June. Based on the current price, 65% of the call options are out of the money, while 94% for put options.
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FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.140%(ALLOT 51.50%)
May-19 15:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.140%(ALLOT 51.50%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 38.86% OF COMPETITIVES
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May-19 15:32
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- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 4.53% OF COMPETITIVES
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SECURITY: Iran Rejects Trump Administration's 'Red Line' On Nuclear Enrichment
May-19 15:19
Iran Nuances reports on X that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has reiterated: “No matter how much [The US] repeat it, our positions won't change. Our stance is clear: we will continue enrichment." The comments, in line with similar comments Araghchi made yesterday, are likely to further dent expectations that a nuclear accord can be struck in the short term.
- Araghchi's latest statement came after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed President Trump's negotiator Steve Witkoff's comments to ABC that Iran must cease all enrichment activity to facilitate a new nuclear accord: “We cannot have that because enrichment enables weaponization, and we will not allow a bomb to get here.”
- Witkoff comment appeared to pivot from recent reports suggesting that the Trump administration may be willing to accept Iran enriching uranium for its civilian nuclear programme, below levels considered viable to produce a nuclear weapon.
- The New York Times reported yesterday: “Several weeks ago Mr. Witkoff suggested he might be willing to accept a deal in which Iran could enrich uranium up to 3.67 percent, the level set in the 2015 accord, which is suitable for civilian purposes. That contributed to an internal debate inside the White House and his position has hardened since.”
- Reuters reported earlier: "Nuclear talks between Iran and the United States "will lead nowhere" if Washington insists that Tehran drop its uranium enrichment activity to zero, Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takhtravanchi was quoted by state media on Monday as saying."
