EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On TTF Gains

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising, influenced by EU gas volatility, with the EUA-TTF intraday correlation reaching as high as 0.70 in the afternoon. TTF is rising and standing above the lows of the month, while STOXX is rising amid positive earnings and investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision that set to be announced after market closes at 18:00BST.

• EUA DEC 25 up 0.56% at 78.76 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 0.33% at 55.49 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas NOV 25 up 0.7% at 31.73 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas NOV 25 up 0.9% at 80.32 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 0% at 5705.81
• The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €78.55/ton CO2e, up 2.57% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €76.58/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• UKA ICE auction cleared at £55.50/ton CO2e, compared with £54.40/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 15 Oct, according to ICE.
• EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds slightly reduced their net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange, while remaining at the highest since early May 2021, according to the latest CoT data as of 24 October.
• UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds cut their net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange as of 24 October, while fundamentals remained mostly unchanged, according to the latest COT data.
• TTF front month is slightly higher today but remains near the low end of its monthly range, ahead of the Nov25 contract expiry tomorrow, amid a mild weather forecast.
• The latest proposed EU ETS 2 reform could increase total allowance supply by 10% between 2027-2035 if all 600 million allowances held in the Market Stability Reserve (MSR2) are released, according to LIFE Effect.
• In response to the Committee on Climate Change’s (CCC) suggestion to strengthen the UK ETS by introducing a higher carbon price floor, the UK government stated that it will let the market to determine UKA prices, according to the latest Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan, and the Government response to the Climate Change Committee.
• The UK ETS Authority opened a consultation to assess the impacts on regional air connectivity following the removal of UK ETS free allocation from the aviation sector.