EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On TTF Early Upticks
Jul-02 15:36
{EU}EUAs /UKAs Dec25 have been holding onto gains for a second consecutive session, shrugging off a late-session pullback in TTF prices. Both carbon have rebounded from the one- and two-month lows on Monday. Meanwhile, the EC has announced the 2040 climate target, with both carbon prices remaining stable on the announcement as the measures are in line with market expectation.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.57% at 71.69 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 2.84% at 48.15 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas AUG 25 down 0.9% at 33.38 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas AUG 25 up 0.1% at 79.48 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.6% at 5313.98
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period at 0.13.
- Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period at 0.26.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period at 0.73.
- Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period 0.43.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €16.07/t CO2e.
- EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds sharply cut net long positionings in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange to the lowest since early May according to the latest COT data as of 27 June.
- UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds maintain their net long positionings in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange at a similar level as the prior week, according to the latest COT data as of 27 June.
- The EC today proposed a legally binding 90% emissions cut by 2040 versus 1990 levels, amending the EU Climate Law as part of its 2024–2029 political guidelines, it said.
- Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said today that he disagrees with the EC’s new 2040 climate target of a 90% emissions reduction by 2040 versus 1990 levels, according to Reuters.
- The EC opened consultation on expanding the scope of the CBAM to cover certain downstream products, aiming to further reduce the risk of carbon leakage, it said.
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FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.150%(ALLOT 87.95%)
Jun-02 15:33
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.150%(ALLOT 87.95%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 29.30% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 11.26% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 59.45% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.13
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 69.18%)
Jun-02 15:33
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 69.18%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 45.07% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.39% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 48.54% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.68
BONDS: Europe Pi: Eurex Largely Flat/Long Into Rolls
Jun-02 15:30
The June/September Eurex futures roll started at the end of last week, with volumes today suggesting most contracts are likely to be roughly 40% complete as of the close of Monday's trade vs 10-20% Friday).
- Generally speaking there are few positioning updates from our May 20 pre-Gilt roll (which is completed) Europe Pi, which showed Schatz in long positioning and Bobl/Buxl/Bund in flat positioning heading into the rolls (the latest move to "short" in the table below for Bund looks roll-related).
- OAT remained flat and BTP remained long going into the rolls. Gilts are showing "flat" vs "very long" into the roll but we would take caution in interpreting the structural positioning given the rolling process.
- (Note also in the table below, "Latest week's trade" becomes more difficult to interpret in this context due to dropping OIs.)
