EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On Resting Pressure

Oct-15 15:24

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising as selling pressure rests after declines in the prior sessions driven by heightened trade tensions between the US and China. EUAs and UKAs were also influenced by intraday volatility in TTF, with all three contracts rising by more than 1% in the afternoon.

  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.35% at 77.96 EUR/t CO2e
  • UKA DEC 25 up 1.76% at 54.94 GBP/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas NOV 25 up 0.4% at 31.94 EUR/MWh
  • NBP Gas NOV 25 down 0.1% at 81.19 GBp/therm
  • Estoxx 50 up 1.1% at 5610.56
  • The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €76.58/ton CO2e, up 3.07% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €74.3/ton CO2e according to EEX.
  • UKA ICE auction cleared at £54.40/ton CO2e, compared with £53.50/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 1 Oct, according to ICE. ICE revised the total bidders from 87 to 15 in late afternoon, while the successful bids remained at 10. 
  • EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds increased their net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange for the second consecutive week to the highest since early May 2021 according to the latest CoT data as of 10 October.
  • UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds reduced their net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange to a four-week low as of 10 October, amid potential profit-taking activity, while fundamentals remained stable, according to the latest COT data.
  • EU leaders are set to refrain from explicitly voicing support for the 2040 climate target and have called for enabling conditions for industrial decarbonisation to be established, according to a draft statement seen by Bloomberg.
  • The UK ETS Authority reinstated that the EU-UK ETS linkage could provide a cheaper path to net zero, according to its annual UK ETS report released yesterday after market close. The benefits mentioned include increased carbon market liquidity, greater investment certainty and EU CBAM exemption.
  • UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) urged the UK to prepare for the global warming to reach 1.5°C above preindustrial levels by 2030s and 2°C by 2050s, according to its letter to Emma Hardy MP, the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Historical bullets

FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.316 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL

Sep-15 15:15
  • US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.316 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL

FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.601 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL

Sep-15 15:15
  • US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.601 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL

EGBS: 10-year BTP/Bund Spread Testing 78bps

Sep-15 15:09

The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is testing the 78bps handle, with today’s 2.5bp tightening supported by positive risk sentiment (the S&P 500 index marked a fresh all-time high today, with EStoxx 50 index also up almost 1% intraday).

  • The immediate downside target in the spread will be the August 13 close at 76.7bps, after which the 70bp handle will be in focus.
  • Alongside the solid risk backdrop, September’s BTP/Bund narrowing has been supported by an ongoing pullback in EUR rates vol and relative political stability in Italy compared to the likes of France.