EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On EU Gas Volatility
Sep-16 15:22
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising to the highest level since mid-Feb 2025 and early-July 2023, amid stable bullish sentiments, while influenced by volatility in EU gas. The UKA-TTF 30-day correlation has now tightened beyond the EUA-TTF correlation. Meanwhile, the open interest in UKAs Dec25 has climbed to an all-time high, while prices have gained nearly 60% year-to-date, suggesting rising confidence in UKAs.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.07% at 77.57 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 1.2% at 57.47 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 0.6% at 32.335 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas OCT 25 up 1% at 79.3 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 1.1% at 5379.18
- FTSE 100 SEP 25 down 0.8% at 9211
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €76.17/ton CO2e, up 1.53% compared with the previous EU auction at €75.02/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a move towards €78.73, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch lies at €68.71, the May 30 low.
- TTF front month is slightly higher today, but still stands below the recent high of €33.44/MWh on Sep. 10 as storage continues to slowly build with a ramp up in Norway supply expected later this week.
- ABN AMRO forecasted EUAs to rise to €145/t by 2030 and €200/t by 2035, under baseline scenario, amid expected decline in allowances supply and Total Number of Allowances in Circulation (TNAC).
- ABN AMRO expects EUA prices to be slightly below the baseline scenario if the EU-UK ETS link takes effect in 2027, amid rising allowance supply and downward price convergence.
- The Coalition for Higher Ambition, a European climate coalition, urged the EU to not integrating international carbon credits into the EU ETS, citing risks of delaying transition and weakening investment certainty.
- IETA called for early auctioning of 310mn EU ETS 2 allowances by mid-2026 to boost liquidity, reduce price uncertainty and facilitate long-term hedging.
- China's former veteran climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, is set to urge the EU to set more ambitious 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and coordinate joint diplomatic efforts during his meeting today with executive VP of the EU Commission for a Clean, Just, and Competitive Transition, according to Reuters.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Follows Fade in Treasuries
Aug-15 22:15
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.710 @ 15:17 BST Aug 15
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures received a boost from the US Treasury rally that followed both the recent poor NFP print as well as Tuesday’s inflation number. While this impact faded into the close of the week, 10-year futures remain toward the top end of the recent range. To the upside, next resistance is at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
FOREX: USD Index Pinned to 50-dma as Putin Shakes Hands with Trump
Aug-15 20:49
- USD slipped against all others Friday, with a poor set of retail sales and Uni of Michigan sentiment numbers meeting a higher-than-expected import price index to further stimulate concerns over a stagflarionary phase in the US economy. The USD Index trades either side of the 50-dma which, notably, has begun to flatten out after maintaining a solid downtrend throughout 2025.
- JPY is the strongest currency in G10, extending the breakout and bearish conclusion of the consolidation phase in USD/JPY. Recent weakness puts the price through support drawn off the early August lows as well as 146.71, a key retracement. Price action this week marks a full reversal of the previously overbought condition, keeping the downside argument in focus.
- Anticipation ahead of the Putin-Trump meeting has reached fever pitch. Footage showing the Presidents shaking hands in Alaska has helped ease concerns over a hostile meeting, but it's the outcomes that will matter to markets - particularly as equities hold at alltime highs. Any signs of progress toward a ceasefire would be warmly received by risk sentiment - although both Trump and Putin cautioned against a optimistic outcome in comments to press.
- We noted earlier in the week the pressure building on USD/HKD, with price action not matching the pattern of HKMA intervention. That move extended overnight, and is still building at typing, putting spot down to new pullback lows of 7.8119 shortly after the European open. Overnight swap rates have surged further still Friday (hitting 1.7% at typing), well ahead of the 0.3% prevailing rate mid-week and should continue to support a recovery in HIBOR fixes ahead. Today's 1m HIBOR fixed higher by 41bps, hitting 1.45% for the highest fix since mid-May. It's these factors that should work against the HKD carry trade (selling HKD, buying USD), evident in the further tightening of the HKD forward discount today: down 975 points from as high as 1270 this month.
- Focus in the coming week shifts to Jackson Hole and Powell's comments on Friday. With the September meeting still in flux - any conviction toward tipping the board toward a rate cut at the next FOMC will be carefully watched, but it's a hawkish outturn that could be more consequential for markets, as OIS prices a near 90% chance of easing on September 17th.
MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN JUN +$77.8B
Aug-15 20:00
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN JUN +$77.8B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN JUN +$150.8B
