EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On EU Gas Gains
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising, supported by gains in EU gas and equities. TTF are rising on a new unplanned outage announced today at Norway’s Troll and reports that the EC is seeking an earlier phase out of Russian LNG, while STOXX are trending higher on Federal Reserves’ rate cut decision. Meanwhile, the European Environment Council is scheduled to hold a press conference today after market closed at around 18:00 CET.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.16% at 77.87 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 1.39% at 58.18 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 1.7% at 32.955 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas OCT 25 up 2.8% at 81.71 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 1.4% at 5446.36
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €77.22/ton CO2e, up 1.38% compared with the previous EU auction at €76.17/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 39) - A total of 16.8mn EUAs will be auctioned next week. Despite prices trading near their highest level since Feb 2025, it’s worth noting that September has been historically the weakest month for EUAs based on five-year seasonality amid fulfilment of surrender obligation, with an average monthly return of -6.4%.
- EUA Sep25 prices remain on an upward trend, while traders are pricing in greater downside risk, reflected in higher implied volatility and the widest negative skew since mid-August. The put/call ratio has edged higher, while the delta call-put volatility negative skew extended, suggesting downside protection demand is growing relative to upside exposure.
- Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a move towards €78.73, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch lies at €68.71, the May 30 low.
- TTF front month is higher owing to a new unplanned outage announced today at Norway’s Troll and reports that the EC is seeking an earlier phase out of Russian LNG, adding to upside pressure from a drop in LNG sendout and pipeline supplies to Italy.
- A combination of rising cement imports, weaker domestic production, and a slower reduction in free allocation could undermine UKAs demand from the sector.
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EQUITIES: Stocks Plumb New Lows, But S&P Ex-Mag 7 Still Higher
- e-mini S&P pulls back to touch a new daily low through the London close at 6439.00 - before markets stabilise off lows. Tech is notably underperforming: NASDAQ is leading the decline, with S&P 500 now in negative territory - although the DJIA holds small gains.
- Of note, Russell 2000 futures have come off highs, but are generally seeing a much shallower pullback relative to the larger cap indices.
- The NYSE Tick Index shows evidence of a sizeable sell program going through at 1101ET/1601BST - with 872 names sold on the downtick, the largest since Thursday last week and the response to the higher-than-expected PPI print.
- Megacap tech stocks look to be leading declines - Netflix, Alphabet and Meta Platforms are dragging the communication services sector lower, while soft semiconductors and chip names (NVIDIA, AMD, Oracle) drag the IT sector with them.
- Bloomberg's S&P 500 excluding the 'Magnificent 7' is still higher by 0.2% on the day, while trading lower by 0.2% when including those names.
- Supports to watch remain 6399.62, the 20-day EMA, and 6275.86, the 50-day EMA.
BELGIUM AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Belgium has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction next Monday, August 25:
- the 3.00% Jun-33 OLO (ISIN: BE0000357666)
- the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694)
- the 3.50% Jun-55 OLO (ISIN: BE0000361700)
CANADA: Conservative Leader Returns To Commons After Easy By-Election Win
Leader of the main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), Pierre Poilievre, has been returned to the House of Commons following a comfortable by-election win on 18 August. With 99.65% of the vote counted, Poilievre won the rural Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot with 80.4% of the vote. Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley came second with 9.9%. The result was never in doubt, with the sparsely populated area of Alberta to the east of Calgary one of the most conservative areas of the country.
- Poilievre's win will enable him to debate PM Mark Carney in the House of Commons, a privilege he has never held. Prior to the 28 April federal election, Carney did not hold a seat in the Commons and so could not take part in the PM's Question Period. In a disastrous result for the Conservatives on election night, Poilievre lost his own riding in Ottawa. Since then, he has not been able to directly question Carney.
- The CPC leader's return to parliament does little to alter the gov'ts policy direction or Carney's position as PM. Indeed, Poilievre will face another challenge in the new year. In Jan 2026, CPC members vote on his leadership following a review of the election disaster, where the party went from leading the Liberals by 20% just months before the vote to seeing Carney win an overall majority after CPC support cratered in the face of trade and security threats from the Trump administration in the US
