EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On EU Gas Gains
Aug-20 15:20
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rangebound, supported by gains in EU gas, with TTF rising on steady fundamentals ahead of seasonal maintenance in Norway. Meanwhile, EU equities losses are weighing on carbon as global bullish sentiment stalls following tech stock selloffs, while investors awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Additionally, UK headline CPI came in a tenth above consensus expectations on higher services, while remaining in line with the BOE’s MPR forecast.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.27% at 71.35 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.69% at 50.93 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas SEP 25 up 2.5% at 32 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas SEP 25 up 3.3% at 79.38 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.4% at 5463.62
- The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €70.47/ton CO2e, down 0.38% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €70.74/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- ICE EUA futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Key S/T resistance has been defined at €73.35, the Jul 30 and Aug 8 highs. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish development and signal scope for an extension towards €76.75, the Jun 13 high and a key M/T resistance. For bears, support to watch lies at €68.71, the May 30 low. A clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish theme and open €66.44, a Fibonacci retracement.
- EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds cut net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange as of 15 August, ending a three-week streak of rising positions, according to the latest COT data.
- UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds cut net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange as of 15 August, ending a three-week streak of rising positions, according to the latest COT data.
- TTF front month has risen as focus shifts to supply risks ahead of seasonal maintenance in Norway while the market watches for any progress toward a ceasefire in Ukraine.
- Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe has called for the EU ETS 2 to be implemented without delay and urged against adding extra allowances to the system, it said.
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FOREX: USD Fade Persists, Looking Through Equity Bounce
Jul-21 15:17
Renewed losses for the dollar push through with the WMR fix cleared. EUR/USD making headway above 1.17 at typing, while GBP/USD tops 1.3500.
- Drivers here remain the same - the bull flatter US curve anticipating the nearing deadlines for reciprocal tariff deals and expected EU retaliation against US trade measures. Nonetheless, this USD fade is coming on lighter-than-usual volumes: EUR and GBP futures have seen cumulative activity ~20% below average for this time of day, with the Japanese market holiday likely a contributor here.
- Equities are proving resilient, however, with the USD weakening as the e-mini S&P faded, and weakening further still as equities rallied after the cash open.
- Also of note, USD/CNH has now shown through the uptrendline drawn off the early July low and is set for a strong negative close. This opens 7.1687 support ahead of 7.1657.
FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.259 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
Jul-21 15:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.259 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.982 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
Jul-21 15:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.982 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
