EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On EU Gas Gains

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising on EU gas gains amid optimism from US-China trade talk, with the EUAs-TTF intraday correlation hovering above 0.65 mostly on the day, and EUAs-UKAs at above 0.55. Meanwhile, the US-China tariff announced in the afternoon has swung both EUAs and UKAs by over 1%.

• EUA DEC 25 up 2.35% at 74.37 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 2.14% at 52.9 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas JUL 25 up 3.4% at 35.82 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas JUL 25 up 4.6% at 84.17 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 down 0.5% at 5395
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period tightened to the highest level since early March at 0.68.
• Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period remained at 0.22.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained at 0.40.
• Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period remained at 0.34.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €11.97/t CO2e.
• TTF front month has rallied ~3.5% today due to support from supply risks and optimism from US-China trade talks. Warm weather forecasts in Europe and Asia, as well as reports on French nuclear corrosion risks, have added to upside support.
• The latest bi-weekly Poland EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €73.5/ton CO2e, up 4.20% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €70.54/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• UKA ICE auction cleared higher at £51.63/ton CO2e, compared with £50.37/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 28 May according to ICE.
• EUA POSITIONING – Speculator positionings in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange raised bullish bets last week with net long positioning rising to the highest since late March, according to the latest COT data as of 6 June.
• UKA POSITIONING – Speculator positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange cut bullish bets to the lowest level since late April, according to the latest COT data as of 6 June.
• World Bank Group said that price growth in EUAs since 2015 is the key driver for the global emissions-weighted average carbon price in 2025 to quadruple to around $5/t, it said.
• ENTSO-E urged the EC to exempt transmission system operators (TSOs) from the CBAM scope or postpone the CBAM for electricity by one year to 1 Jan 2027, it said.
• Climate Change Committee (CCC) advised that the UK ETS should not include nature-based removals, as it would cause increased divergence from the EU ETS, making the linkage more difficult, it said
• Greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands rose 7% y/y in Q1 2025, first y/y rise in Q1 since 2021, driven by the emissions rise in power sector, according to preliminary figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM).