EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rangebound

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rangebound, influenced by movements in EU gas and equities. The latest COT report showed funds holding record-high net long positions in EUAs and UKAs ahead of the EU ETS September deadline, with downside risks post-surrender period remaining high.

• EUA DEC 25 up 0.3% at 77.13 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 0.05% at 57.33 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas OCT 25 up 1% at 33.25 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas OCT 25 up 0.8% at 81.4 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 down 0.2% at 5358.06
• EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds sharply increased net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange as of 5 September to the highest level since the week ending 14 February according to the latest COT data.
• UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds raised net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange to an all-time high as of 5 September, according to the latest COT data.
• Investment funds increased bullish bets on ICE EUA futures to the highest level since late-Feb 2025, as compliance buying ahead of the September submission deadline and seasonal trends buoyed sentiment.
• EUA funds positionings in the first week of September reflected the continuation of the bullish seasonality. However, the rally faces downside risk later this month. Both long positioning and auction prices have historically reversed after the September compliance peak, with September ranking the worst performing month.
• Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. Monday’s move higher resulted in a breach of resistance at €76.75, the Jun 13 high and a key medium-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would set the scene for an extension towards €78.73, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch lies at €68.71, the May 30 low. A clear breach of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.
• TTF is steady overall with supply risks in focus ahead of higher winter demand amid rising geopolitical tensions and risks of further sanctions/secondary tariffs on Russian.