EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rally On EU-UK CBAM
Oct-02 15:27
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rallying, following the EU and UK are reported to near agreeing a temporary deal sparing UK businesses from the EU’s CBAM, targeting to finalise by the next EU-UK summit. The rally was driven by the interpretation of a progress on EU-UK ETS link.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.36% at 77.37 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 3.11% at 56.11 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas NOV 25 up 0% at 31.345 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas NOV 25 down 0.1% at 79.93 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 1.2% at 5646.11
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €76.05/ton CO2e, up 0.13% compared with the previous EU auction at €75.95/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. A fresh cycle high on Sep 17 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a move towards €78.73, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support to watch is €74.45, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 41) - A total of 17.8mn EUAs will be auctioned next week, with 5 auction sessions will be held. The latest EU ETS auction cleared at €76.05/tCO2e, up 0.65% w/w, moving back above the 10-day average after dipping below it last week, while remaining steadily above the 50- and 100-day averages.
- The EU and UK are close to agreeing a temporary deal sparing UK businesses from the EU’s CBAM, reported by The Gurdian at 15:00 BST. Prior to the release of the news, EUAs Dec25 jumped 1.83% between 13:15-14:48 BST to Eur77.54/t, the highest intraday level since 22 September.
- Between 13:00-14:00 BST, the trading volume was at 5.7k contracts, more than double the hourly average of 2.3k.
- European carbon markets are expected to be extremely short in 2026 and 2027, largely driven by supply according to ICIS.
- TTF front month is drifting lower but remains above yesterday’s low of €30.735/MWh amid signs of Indian LNG interest boosted by low prices. The slow return of Norwegian supplies from seasonal maintenance continues but the curtailed supplies are offset by a recent rise in LNG sendout.
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UK FISCAL: Report-Treasury Has Not Yet Given OBR 10-Week Budget Notice Period
Sep-02 15:20
Hugo Gye at The i Paper posts on X: "No10 has just confirmed that the Budget won't be before mid-November at the earliest. Treasury has not yet given the OBR the ten-week notice period that it needs to prepare an updated economic and fiscal forecast."
- MNI noted on 28 August, "As we have moved into a November / December Budget looking probable, there will be no further constraints from CPI (September figures used to uprate benefits), party conferences or parliamentary recesses etc. We still assume that the Budget will take place on a Wednesday which would make 12 November the earliest potential date ...This means that it would be later than the November MPC meeting and MPR release - and in our view keeps a potential December cut on the table." (see 'UK FISCAL: November (or December) Budget?", 28 August)
FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.217 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
Sep-02 15:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.217 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.759 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
Sep-02 15:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.759 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
