EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Hit Record High

{EUEUAs Dec25 are rising to the highest level since mid-Feb, up over 3% w/w, on EU gas gains following heightened Middle East tensions, while lower-than-expected EU Industrial Production and equities losses limiting carbon gains on the day. UKAs Dec25 are rising to near the highest level since Oct 2023, up nearly 8% w/w amid influence from both EUAs and gas gains, while bullish sentiment continues. 

• EUA DEC 25 up 0.57% at 75.82 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 1.24% at 54.59 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas JUL 25 up 3.8% at 37.535 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas JUL 25 up 4.6% at 88.79 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 down 1.3% at 5289
• ICE EUA futures have traded higher today as the contract extends the uptrend that started Apr 9. The break higher signals scope for an extension towards €78.73, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial support to watch lies at €71.13 the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would undermine the bullish theme.
• TTF has extended its move higher after the major escalation in Middle East tensions/conflicts, disruption to Israeli gas production, unplanned Norway supply outage and continued French nuclear corrosion risks.
• The latest Germany EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €75.36/ton CO2e, up 4.23% compared with the previous Germany auction at €72.3/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• EUA Dec25 implied volatility as of 12 June fell to its lowest level since 10 March while EUAs Dec25 rose nearly 4% w/w as of 12 June, suggesting a bullish sentiment while participants are expecting weaker disruptions in the short-term.
• Allowing international carbon credits into the EU ETS would risk undermine decarbonisation effort and derailing the bloc’s 2040 climate target, according to the Oeko Institute.
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is projected to capture 15% of CO2 emissions from ships globally by 2050, according to DNV.
• Aquaterra Energy signed two contracts to develop the UK’s offshore carbon storage that are set to store 4mn tCO2e annually, advancing the country’s target of 20-30mn tCO2e by 2030.