EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Hit Multi-Month Highs
EUAs Dec 25 are rallying to the highest level since February, supported by the strongest buying interest since early April, after Germany’s Economy Minister Katharina Reiche confirmed the timeline for introducing an industrial power price. UKAs Dec 25 are rising to its highest level since mid-September, entering overbought territory for the first time since early September, supported by gains in EUAs on the day.
- EUA DEC 25 up 3.69% at 81.44 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 3.02% at 57.97 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 2.1% at 31.78 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 up 1.9% at 82.43 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.3% at 5677.84The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €79.3/ton CO2e, up 0.75% compared with the previous EU auction at €78.71/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- TTF is finding support from supply risks and possible cooler weather towards mid-November despite current healthy LNG import flows.
- The EU Council Presidency unveiled a revised compromise text on EU Climate Law amendment following 31 October discussions, ahead of the Environment Council meeting on 4 November, according to the EU Council.
- Slovakia’s Agriculture Minister Richard Takáč has called for the abolition of EU ETS 2, arguing that the bloc’s decarbonisation targets are unrealistic, according to TASR.
- BNEF ranked the EU as the highest-scoring in G-20 economy for low-carbon support in 2025, with a score of 69%.
- The EU Commission announced a €2.9bn in funding for 61 net-zero technology projects that set to cut around 221mn tCO2e over the first decade of operation, under the Innovation Fund, financed by revenues from the EU ETS.
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USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4045 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3989 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3953 @ 16:02 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 1.3897/3825 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and yesterday’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3825, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
- PRICE: 0.6603 @ 16:01 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6558. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: September's Coupon Auctions Were Generally Solid (2/2)
September’s coupon auctions were generally solid, with three lines trading through, two coming out on the screws and two tailing slightly.
- Looking through the lens of MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), five lines saw positive readings while two saw negative readings.
- The 3-year sale was the strongest auction of the month according to MNI’s RSI. The 3-year line traded through 0.7bps, the largest stop through in seven months. Meanwhile, the primary dealer take-up was just 8.4%, the lowest on record (data going back to 2003).
- The weakest sale of the month was the last – the 7-year line. This line saw the second consecutive 0.5bp tail, with the 12.0% primary dealer take-up above August’s 9.8% and July’s record low 4.1%.
September Auction Review:
- 2Y Note on-the-screws: 3.571% vs. 3.571% WI.
- 2Y FRN: 0.200% high margin vs. 0.195% prior
- 3Y Note trade-through: 3.485% vs. 3.492% WI.
- 5Y Note tail: 3.710% vs 3.709% WI.
- 7Y Note tail: 3.953% vs. 3.948% WI.
- 10Y Note trade-through: 4.033% vs. 4.047% WI.
- 10Y TIPS: 1.734% high yield vs. 1.985% prior
- 20Y Bond trade-through: 4.613% vs 4.615% WI.
- 30Y Bond on-the-screws: 4.651% vs. 4.651% WI.
