EMISSIONS: EU End of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Fall Sharply

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 hit the lowest level since mid-Dec 2024 and mid-Mar 2025 respectively, amid EU gas price dip on the US tariff concerns. Meanwhile, the spread between EUA-UKA hit the lowest level since Oct 2024 amid greater EUAs selloff, with EUAs Dec25 approaching over-sold threshold level under Relative Strength Index (RSI).

• EUA DEC 25 down 3.6% at 66.06 EUR/MT
• ICE UKA Dec25 down 0% at 45.46 GBP/MT
• TTF Gas MAY 25 down 4.1% at 39.56 EUR/MWh
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period tightened to 0.63 from the 0.61 on the previous day.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.65.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent narrowed to €13.4/t CO2e from the €15.4/t CO2e in the previous day, the lowest level since Oct 2024.
• RSI for EUAs/UKAs Dec25 stands at 36.20 and 50.21 respectively, with both indications at three-week lows and EUAs trending toward the oversold threshold of 30.
• The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €65.75/ton CO2e, down 1.44% compared with the previous EU auction at €66.71/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• The trend outlook in ICE EUA futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent weakness reinforces this theme. Today’s move lower has resulted in a breach of key support at €66.78, the Mar 7 low. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for an extension towards €64.05, the Dec 17 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. Key S/T resistance is at €74.23, the Mar 19 high.
• The European Commission has pushed back the release of its 2040 climate target proposal, now expected “before summer”, it said. EUAs remain stable following the announcement, as the delay aligns with market expectations.
• UKAs rallied briefly in the morning amid the UK and the EU are expected to work toward linking their carbon markets at a 19 May summit. However, this was largely in line with market expectations, capping gains.