EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Fall On EU Gas Volatility

EUAs Dec25 are edging down amid EU gas swings on the day, with the EUA-TTF intraday correlation tightening to near 0.80. Meanwhile, UKAs Dec25 are tracking EUAs small losses, while a lack of clear UK-US trade deal also suppressing prices. 

• EUA DEC 25 down 0.49% at 70.71 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 down 0.12% at 51.81 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas JUN 25 up 2.4% at 35.345 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas JUN 25 up 2% at 84.74 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 0.9% at 5250
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained high at 0.58.
• Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period weakened to 0.48 as carbon resumed tracking gas lately.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period tightened slightly to 0.75.
• Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period loosened slightly at 0.59.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €9.61/t CO2e.
• Short-term gains in ICE EUA futures are considered corrective. However, the contract has traded through the 50-day EMA - at €68.54. This signals scope for a stronger recovery and exposes €74.23, the Mar 19 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on €63.61, the Apr 22 low, where a break would highlight the end of the corrective cycle and signal a resumption of the downtrend.
• The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €70.3/ton CO2e, up 3.57% compared with the previous EU auction at €67.88/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• The EC has issued reasoned opinions to more than 12 Member States for failing to fully transpose revised EU ETS and aviation ETS rules into national law by the 31 December 2023 deadline, it said on Wednesday.
• The EU Council backed the EC proposed amendment to the regulation on CO2 standards for new passenger cars and vans, supporting more flexible rules, it said.
• S&P Global said that while some bigger trading houses have started hedging EU CBAM exposure using EUAs, many importers remain underprepared, especially smaller firms lacking dedicated compliance resources, it said.
• Greece’s power sector emitted 4.5mn tonnes CO2e in 1Q 2025, accounting for 44% of its 2025 carbon budget and the highest Q1 level in three years, largely driven by a surge in fossil gas use, according to the Green Tank.