EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Fall on EU Gas Losses
Dec-10 16:23
EUAs Dec25 are falling, weighed by losses in EU gas and equities, with EUAs continuing to oscillate between the range of €81-83/t. UKAs Dec25 are falling to the lowest level since early November, with momentum indicators showing strong selling pressure. EUAs/UKAs Dec25 options are set to expire today.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.48% at 82.45 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.93% at 55.68 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas JAN 26 down 3.2% at 26.615 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas JAN 26 down 3.7% at 69.65 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.3% at 5699.15
- The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €82.18/ton CO2e, up 0.82% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €81.51/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- The medium-term trend condition in ICE EUA futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs confirmed a resumption of the trend and the move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price is trading closer to its recent highs and sights are on €84.50, the Jan 30 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at €80.00, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
- UKAs Dec25 is moving toward the lower Bollinger Band, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to its lowest level since mid-July. Over the past year, the strategy of entering a long position when UKAs Dec25 cross below the lower Bollinger Band and exiting all when it rise back above the middle band would have yielded a 22% return, with all five trades finishing in positive returns and an average holding period of eight days.
- EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds again increased net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange to a new record high, according to the latest CoT data as of 5 December.
- UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds cut their net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange as of 5 December to the lowest level since late August, according to the latest COT data.
- ICIS sees the EU Commission’s decision on the 370mn leftover allowances in the free allocation buffer, representing about 3% of the 2021–2030 cap, as a key policy risk in 2026, the analyst said in a webinar.
- TTF front month remains under pressure, offsetting slight gains yesterday to once again fall to April 2024 lows, amid ongoing mild weather and with LNG supplies edging higher after a dip at the weekend.
- The EU Commission, the Parliament and member states in the EU council has reached a tentative agreement on the 2040 climate target of reducing emissions by 90% versus 1990 level, according to EU Council.
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US: Senate Convenes To Work On Funding Package, Focus On Time Agreement
Nov-10 16:18
The US Senate has convened to begin consideration of the three-bill minibus appropriations package and Continuing Resolution to fund the government through January 30. The primary focus for markets is whether Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) can strike a deal to fast-track the process of reopening the government.
- As eight Democrats voted to invoke cloture on the package yesterday, the remaining procedural votes can be passed via a simple majority. However, absent a time agreement to wrap up the package today, any single Senator can delay the process for a few days.
- Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is one potential holdup. He "has been warning GOP leaders that he will obstruct passage of any bill that takes aim at the hemp industry in his state," per Politico.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) indicated at a press conference a short time ago that he will bring the lower chamber back into session 36 hours after Senate passage, which suggests the government could be reopened by Wednesday.
- Punchbowl notes that Johnson wants to pass the Senate package under a rule, meaning the bill will require a vote in the Rules Committee and a rule vote on the floor. The GOP majority will only be two votes if Johnson swears in Rep-elect Adelita Grijalva, who won a special election in September, when the House gavels in.
- As always, Johnson will need the support of conservatives. However, despite standard objections to CRs and the inclusion of a Senate minibus appropriations package, House conservatives are unlikely to torpedo a Trump-backed plan to reopen the government.
FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.943 BLN FROM $86.000 BLN TOTAL
Nov-10 16:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.943 BLN FROM $86.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.378 BLN FROM $77.000 BLN TOTAL
Nov-10 16:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.378 BLN FROM $77.000 BLN TOTAL
