EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Fall On EU Gas Losses

• EUR/USD: Oct08 $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1770-80(E1.2bln), $1.1800(E1.4bln), $1.1850-60(E1.0bln); Oct10 $1.1600(E1.3bln), $1.1650(E1.7bln), $1.1700(E1.6bln), $1.1740-50(E2.5bln), $1.1780-00(E2.8bln)
• USD/JPY: Oct08 Y146.50($1.2bln), Y147.00($1.5bln); Oct09 Y150.00-15($1.9bln)

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 113-00 High Sep 24 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-13+ @ 16:59 BST Oct 6
• SUP 1: 112-12+/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg   
• SUP 2: 111-26   Low Aug 26
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase  

Treasuries have pulled back from last week’s high print of 112-31+ (Oct 3). Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 112-12+. It has recently been pierced but for now remains intact. A clear break of it would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish.   

• JPY slid sharply against all others Monday in the extended response to the surprise victory for Takaichi in the LDP leadership race. Trump congratulated the new Japanese PM, setting the leaders up for their first face-to-face summit on October 28th. Ahead of Takaichi's first formal actions in government, one of her primary policy advisers Honda stated that Takaichi wants the Bank of Japan to proceed "cautiously" on interest rates, and that an October rate hike is "difficult". While the comments appeared to pressure the Bank away from tightening policy, the view that a December hike is not a problem and that the currency is approaching levels deemed too weak helped boost the JPY off lows.
• The EUR traded weaker in early Europe, following the resignation of the French PM Lecornu - and bedding markets in for an extended period of political risk and
  budget brinkmanship. French equities also see weakness - with the CAC40 easily the underperformer in Europe. Next major support in EURUSD crosses at
  1.1646, the late Sept low. Weakness through here snaps the weak uptrend posted off the August 1st low.
• The USD's NY morning fade aided EURUSD and GBPUSD well off earlier lows, helping EURUSD almost entirely erase the PM resignation losses. EURGBP still
  traded heavy, however, meaning GBPUSD's rally has the price within range of the Friday high at 1.3486. It's fiscal and political risk that's likely a more primary GBP
  driver for the rest of this year - The front-end of the GBP vol curve provide a further signal for market concern over the Autumn Budget. The flatter
  front-end of the curve and the building premium for 2m implied vols shows markets building a risk premium into the event.
• We see GBP's driver as the fiscal policy mix ahead. The Gilt curve and, in particular, the longer-end has regained a sense of stability after being marked sharply higher at the beginning of September. How valid and long-lasting this proves to be should determine GBP/USD's ability to trade within range of 1.3525 (50% mid-Sept downleg) and make meaningful headway toward the bull trigger of the July 1st high at 1.3789.
• Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence data is the Tuesday highlight, followed by German factory orders for August. US trade balance data was set for release Tuesday, however the extended government shutdown will keep that figure quiet for now. There remains very little pressure on either side to make concessions and rush toward a conclusion for the shutdown at this point - leaving markets with a core expectation for a further week or so of no Federal government activity.
• Various Fed speakers are due Tuesday, including Bostic, Bowman, Miran and Kashkari - who will be carefully watched for any suggestions that a prolonged government shutdown will hinder the US economy further, and require a more forceful response from the FOMC.