EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKA Track Weekly Gains On Equities
Nov-14 16:21
{EEUAs/UKAs Dec25 track weekly gains but are trending lower on the day, pressured by losses in EU equities amid growing concerns that the Federal Reserve may skip a rate cut in December. The 30-day correlation between EUA-STOXX has tightened to 0.37 and surpassed EUA-TTF.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.48% at 80.95 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 2.27% at 56.93 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 2.4% at 31.185 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 up 2.7% at 82.19 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 1.1% at 5681.46
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €80.85/ton CO2e, up 1.37% compared with the previous Germany auction at €79.76/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- A medium-term uptrend in ICE EUA futures remains intact and this week’s fresh cycle reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has pierced the short-term bull trigger at €82.41, the Nov 4 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open €84.50, the Jan 30 high and a key resistance. On the downside, support to watch lies at €78.12, the 50-day EMA.
- BNEF forecasted EUAs to rise by 16% next year and almost double by 2030 under current policy settings.
- Rabobank has revised up the EUAs spot forecast in Q4 2025 to €78.25/t CO2e from €75/t CO2e in the previous forecast published in October, with forecasts below current spot prices.
- EU GHG emissions in Q2 2025 were estimated to decrease by 0.4% year-on-year to 772mn tCO2e, with electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply leading the largest reduction, according to Eurostat.
- ING sees EU ETS 2 as a tail risk to Poland’s official inflation projection after the one-year delay, it said.
- Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record 38bn tons, according to Global Carbon Project.
- TTF front month is on track to be stable on the week after rebounding in Friday's session with forecasts for the first cold spell in NW Europe.
- NewClimate Institute stated that the updated 2035 NDCs make no meaningful difference to projected global warming outcomes, citing weak targets, continued fossil fuel expansion, and insufficient renewable energy deployment.
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SECURITY: US Edges Closer To Imposing New Penalties On Russia
Oct-15 16:16
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, “anyone purchasing Russian energy is subsidizing attacks on the Ukrainian people,” per Reuters. Bessent’s comment comes as the US appears to be edging towards imposing new penalties on Russia, and the Trump administration weighs up selling Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles.
- Earlier today, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at the NATO defence ministerial meeting in Brussels, “If this war does not end, if there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take the steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression.”
- US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told La Repubblica yesterday, “Tomorrow, the US will make an important announcement regarding arms supplies to Ukraine… There are almost—I don’t want to say unlimited possibilities—but certainly there are many consequences for not reaching a peace agreement that could be used against the Russians.”
- Politico reports that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) “left the door open Tuesday to voting on a long-stalled Russia sanctions bill as soon as this month. He didn’t commit to putting it on the floor — noting he still has to coordinate strategy with the White House — but said he believes the issue is ‘pretty ripe.’”
- US Senators are also working to set up a bipartisan meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside his White House meeting with Trump on Friday.
US TSYS: Extending Lows Coincides With EU Public Contract Headlines
Oct-15 16:14
- Treasuries extending lows - through early overnight levels, coinciding with EU headlines that the EU is discussing "preferential treatment to give domestic firms bidding for public contracts worth about €2.5 trillion ($2.9 trillion) a year," Bbg.
- Note, however, 10Y Bund also declined and is rebounding. Currently, Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract trades 113-09.5 (-3.5), yld tapped 4.0359% high; curves flatter: 2s10s -2.675 at 52.260, 5s30s -2.631 at 99.664.
- Initial technical support at 112-26 (20-day EMA) followed by the 50-day EMA at 112-16. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support.
- Cross asset: Bbg US$ index -3.09 at 1211.35, stocks claw off lows: DJIA up 106.35 points (0.23%) at 46,375.71, S&P E-Minis up 31 points (0.46%) at 6,716.5, Nasdaq up 165.2 points (0.7%) at 22,684.25.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU Officials Comment on France's Fiscal Situation
Oct-15 16:03
EU officials comment on France's fiscal situation - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
