EMISSIONS: EU End of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs, UKAs Decline
Oct-14 15:30
EUAs are trending down for the third consecutive session, after a late selloff on Friday with US President Trump threatening additional tariffs of Chinese goods. UKAs are also falling on Tuesday, tracking moves in EUAs.
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.5% at 76.93 EUR/MT
- ICE UKA Dec25 down 1.1% at 53.93 GBP/MT
- NBP Gas NOV 25 up 1.4% at 81.33 GBp/therm
- TTF Gas NOV 25 up 1.1% at 31.815 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is slightly higher, offsetting yesterday’s losses but still towards the lower end of its recent range, with no sign yet of any significant cold spell in NW Europe. US-China trade tensions and increased Egyptian LNG exports are adding pressure.
- Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at €75.62. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on €80.37, the Oct 10 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- The latest EU EUA CAP3 auction cleared at €76.91/ton CO2e, compared with €78.66/ton CO2e in the previous round on 13 October according to EEX.
- The IMO conference will take place over 14-17 October. The IMO’s MEPC will vote on the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework at the 14-17 Oct meeting, including the global fuel standard and GHG emissions pricing mechanism.
- Germany’s CDU party’s deputy chairman Andreas Jung on Monday called for an extension of the EU ETS emissions cap to 2045, from 2039 currently scheduled, to be in line with the country’s climate neutrality target.
- Preparatory negotiations for COP30 are taking place on 13–14 October in Brasília, aiming to build consensus on implementation, institutional strengthening, and multilateral climate action.
- India’s Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav urged global leaders to focus on the lack of resources for developing countries to deliver climate change, he said at Pre-COP30 in Brasilia on Monday.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Bounces Further Off Support
Sep-12 21:45
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.550 @ 15:36 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 96.430/95.900 - Low Sep 3 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures are trading off recent lows. A resumption of gains from here would further narrow the gap with resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Any continuation lower would instead strengthen a bearish threat. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would open 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
FED: MNI Fed Preview-September 2025: A Reluctant Return To Easing
Sep-12 21:16
We've published our preview of the upcoming FOMC meeting - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is set to resume its easing cycle at the September 16-17 meeting with a 25bp cut to the funds rate range to 4.00-4.25%.
- The decision to cut after a 5-meeting pause was well-telegraphed by Chair Powell, whose Jackson Hole speech described a “shifting balance of risks” toward a weaker labor market that “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.
- The updated quarterly projections aren’t likely to bring many changes to the macroeconomic variables, but as usual the signal sent from the Fed rate “Dot Plot” will garner attention. A Committee split between expecting one or two further cuts this year is likely, keeping each of the remaining meetings of 2025 “live”.
- The Statement will downgrade the description of the labor market to reflect a rise in the unemployment rate and poor payrolls growth, and is likely to include at least one dissent to the rate decision.
- But with a Committee that is fairly divided on the way forward, Powell will be noncommittal on future action, reiterating that policy is not on a preset course, and upcoming decisions will be data-dependent.
- A key undercurrent is an increasingly activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House, which leaves the composition of the FOMC uncertain not just over the medium-term but also at this meeting.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Sep 15
RATINGS: Fitch: France Cut To A+ From AA, Portugal Up To A From A-
Sep-12 21:07
Fitch has downgraded France's sovereign rating to A+ (with stable outlook) from AA-. Release here.
- Among other factors in the decision, Fitch cites "High and Rising Debt Ratio", "Political Fragmentation Hinders Consolidation", "Weak Fiscal Record", "High 2025 Deficit", "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidation Path", and "Fiscal Rigidities".
- In "Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade", Fitch cites "Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP over the medium term, due to failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures and/or a persistent increase in financing costs" and "Macro: Materially lower economic growth prospects and weakened competitiveness." Conversely, potentially leading to positive ratings action would be "Public Finances: Confidence that government debt/GDP will be put on a downward trajectory over the medium term, for example, due to fiscal consolidation and/or stronger economic growth".
- Fitch also raised Portugal to A (stable outlook) from A-, while elsewhere, S&P raised Spain to A+ (stable outlook) from A.
- As MNI wrote earlier, we expected France to be downgraded to A+ and Portugal to be upgraded to A.
