EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Tracks Weekly Gains, UKAs Down
Jul-04 15:37
{EUEUAs Dec25 are on track for a weekly gain of 1%, loosely following TTF’s 0.94% rise, after briefly touching an eight-week low earlier in the week amid selling pressure from long holders that pushed open interest to a near one-month low. Meanwhile, UKAs Dec25 are set for a weekly decline of 0.85%, with the market lacking clear direction after briefly hitting a 12-week low earlier in the week, breaking below the 100-day moving average for the first time since mid-March.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.6% at 71.63 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 1.63% at 47.71 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas AUG 25 down 0.9% at 33.325 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas AUG 25 down 0.9% at 79.2 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 1% at 5290.9
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €70.85/ton CO2e, up 2.09% compared with the previous Germany auction at €69.4/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- ICE EUA futures have recovered from Monday’s low. Despite these gains, a short-term bearish threat remains in place for now. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of a number of support points. This undermines a recent bull theme and note too that support at €69.60, the May 19 low, has also been pierced. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. First resistance to watch is €74.57, the Jun 24 high.
- TTF front month is on track for a small net weekly gain supported by hot weather forecasts in mid-July, which may boost cooling demand. European LNG imports remain healthy while demand remains muted in Asia.
- The UK government has announced the closure of the Industrial Energy Transformation Fund (IETF) following the 2025 Spending Review, it said.
- France’s High Council for Climate (HCC) said on Thursday that political uncertainty is slowing the country’s progress on emissions reduction, with 2024 seeing a deceleration in decarbonisation efforts, reported by LA TRIBUNE.
- Poland’s government said it will not support the EU new 2040 climate target of 90% emissions cut from 1990 levels, calling the plan unrealistic and warning of economic and social risks, according to Brussels Signal.
- Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 2% in 2024 to 54mn tonnes, the third consecutive annual drop, while Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) calling for acceleration, according to EPA latest report.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Midday Update: Fading Post Data Rally
Jun-04 15:34
- over 13,400 FVN5 108.25 puts 24.5 ref 108-10.75
- 3,000 TYN5 107.5/109/110 1x3x1 broken put flys ref 111-01
- 1,200 USN5/USQ5 120 call spds 18 ref 113-08
- +30,000 TYN5 108 puts, 2
- +10,000 FVN5 109.5 calls, 4.5
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.205%(ALLOT 13.84%)
Jun-04 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.205%(ALLOT 13.84%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 33.76% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 4.02% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 62.22% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.13
BOC: Gov Macklem Eyes Western Forest Fires Having Economic Impact
Jun-04 15:31
Dep Gov Rogers reiterates that the BOC hopes to publish a central forecast with July's MPR: "certainly it is our intention to get back to a central scenario.. It is our hope and our expectation that that by July, we'll be back there, but we'll need to wait and see."
- In response to a question by MNI about whether the removal of language in the decision statement that the BOC could "act decisively" if the economy clearly moved in one direction, Macklem says: "Each time we write these we have our deliberations, and then we write down what came out of those deliberations... I think, what is there this time that wasn't there last time was, we gave some indication of our our reaction function as we move forward. So, yes... we did repeat that... given the uncertainty remains high, we are continuing to proceed carefully. That means we're being less forward-looking."
- Macklem ends the press conference by noting the recent forest fires in Western Canada which he says "are having an economic impact", though it's too early to give you an estimate".
