EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rise, UKAs Fall On Week
Dec-12 16:33
{EUAs Dec25 are edging down today from the highest level since October 2023 in the previous session but remain on track for weekly gains of about 2%, supported by persistent bullish sentiment ahead of tightening supply in 2026. Meanwhile, UKAs Dec25 are also edging down today and track weekly losses on the week.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.33% at 83.62 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.34% at 55.89 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas JAN 26 up 2.7% at 27.53 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas JAN 26 up 3.3% at 72.81 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.5% at 5727.9
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €83.65/ton CO2e, up 1.70% compared with the previous Germany auction at €82.25/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- EU ETS auction volume in 2026 will be cut by roughly 52mn from last release in July to 408mn EUAs, amid adjustment on the difference between verified emissions and surrendered allowances, EEX said.
- Ecoeye forecasts EUAs Dec26 to range at €85.27~€87.84/tCO2e next week, it said. It warned potential downside risks include profit-taking from long holders and EU gas downward pressure.
- TTF front month has risen to the top end of its weekly range of €26.5/MWh to €27.7/MWh, amid cooler temperatures towards the end of December and into January, though temperatures are still seen above-normal for the majority of December.
- EU Commission leaked draft shows that aluminium and cement imports will face steeper carbon charges under CBAM amid lower product benchmarks, according to Reuters.
- A new Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) assessment shows the EU and UK have decoupled economic growth and emissions since the Paris Agreement.
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FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.750%(ALLOT 95.87%)
Nov-12 16:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.750%(ALLOT 95.87%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 29.23% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.51% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 64.27% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.18
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Broken Put Mid-curve Condor
Nov-12 16:31
0RF6 98.125/98.0625/98.00/97.875 broken put condor. Paper sold for 0.5 in 10.5k
FOREX: Price Action Consistent with GBP Demand, USD Sales into 4pm London
Nov-12 16:18
USD reversal holds in recent trade, helping form a notable intraday reversal in the likes of EURUSD, USDCNH and - in particular - GBPUSD.
- Price action is consistent with some GBP buying and USD sales into the 4pm WMR fix, and while the rally in GBPUSD does put the pair close to 50 pips off intraday lows, the rally is still well short of AM highs into 1.3155 and yesterday's 1.3184.
- Futures volumes are consistent with a pick-up in interest for GBP as the spot rate recovered off lows - and the tail-off of activity as the rate stalls into 1.3140 further supports the view that the move was flow-related.
- We noted earlier today that dips in EURGBP remain well supported around the prior breakout level at 0.8769, highlighting the dominant uptrend. The next topside target remains at 0.8875, the April 2023 high.
