EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rise On EU Equities Gains    

EUAs Dec25 are edging up to near the highest level since mid-Feb 2025, supported by gains in EU equities on optimism over a potential resolution of the French budget by year-end. UKAs Dec25 are falling for the third consecutive sessions, following profit-taking activity over the past two sessions, with open interest falling by more than 1% as of 7 October since reaching an all-time high last Friday, while prices have declined by nearly 3% during the same period.

• EUA DEC 25 up 0.94% at 79.05 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 down 0.85% at 54.96 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas NOV 25 down 1.6% at 32.72 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas NOV 25 down 2.2% at 83.66 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 0.6% at 5649.5
• Meanwhile, EUAs have also been influenced by the more than 3% intraday swing in TTF, with the EUA-TTF intraday correlation standing at 0.58 near close.
• The latest Irish EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €77.39/ton CO2e, down compared with the previous EU auction at €78.30/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 42) - A total of 20.2mn EUAs will be auctioned next week, with 5 auction sessions will be held. The latest EU ETS auction cleared at €77.39/tCO2e, up 4.16% w/w, remaining steadily above the 10-, 50- and 100-day averages. The latest EUAs auction was hosted for Northern Ireland.
• EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds sharply increased their net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange to the highest since mid-May 2021 in the week to 3 October, after slightly reducing positions the week prior according to the latest CoT data.
• UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds raised net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange marginally to near the all-time high as of 3 October, according to the latest CoT data.
• Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact. The latest rally delivered a print above resistance and the bull trigger at €78.45, the Sep 17 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Price has also traded through €78.73, 76.4% of the Jan 30 - Apr 9 bear leg. Sights are on the €80.00 handle next (pierced). A clear break of this level would open €82.12, the Feb 12 high. Firm support lies at €75.04, the 50-day EMA.
• Analysts from four companies are forecasting that the EUAs prices will reach at least €100 tonnes CO2e by 2027 amid tightening supply, according to SENDECO2e heard at Carbon Forward Expo London.