EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rangebound On TTF Movements

{EU}{2QEUAs Dec25 are rangebound amid the influence from TTF intraday movement as the EUA-TTF intraday correlation have been hovering above 0.50 through the afternoon. UKAs Dec25 are falling to one-week low, as bearish sentiments continued and the trading interest remaining subdued. Meanwhile, the market will be closely watching the EU’s informal meeting of environment ministers on 10–11 July 2025, where discussions will focus on the road to COP30, the EU’s environmental trajectory through 2030, and climate policy planning toward 2040.

• EUA DEC 25 up 0.21% at 70.57 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 down 1.6% at 46.61 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas AUG 25 up 0.9% at 34.51 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas AUG 25 up 1.1% at 82.62 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 1.3% at 5440.44
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period at 0.09.
• Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period at 0.19.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.74.
• Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period at 0.33.
• The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €69.88/ton CO2e, down 2.57% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €71.72/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• UKA ICE auction cleared lower at £45.60/ton CO2e, compared with £48.11/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 25 June according to ICE.
• EUA POSITIONING –  Investment funds slightly increased net long positionings in EU ETS futures on the ICE according to the latest COT data as of 4 July.
• UKA POSITIONING –  Investment funds have cut their net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange to the lowest level since mid-April, with open interest falling nearly 14% since peaking at an all-time high in mid-May, according to the latest COT data as of 4 July.
• EEX reported that EUAs secondary market trading volume in June 2025 rose by 30% m/m and 12% y/y, it said.
• The EU may be nearing a trade deal with the US ahead of the Aug 1 deadline, with the agreement potentially retaining a 10% tariff on most goods while maintaining exclusions from the 25% tariff on cars and the 50% tariff on steel, according to the Wall Street Journal.