EMISSIONS: EU End of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Hold Onto Losses
Dec 2025 EUAs have removed some earlier gains but remain below Friday’s lows with muted power demand and high renewables weighing on prices. A slight recovery in EU gas prices supported EUAs towards the end of the session.
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.7% at 67.56 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas JUN 25 down 0.3% at 32.99 EUR/MWh
- Rotterdam Coal JUN 25 up 1.3% at 98.25 USD/MT
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained high at 0.6.
- Recent gains in ICE EUA futures are considered corrective. Trend signals highlight a dominant downtrend - MA studies for example are in a bear-mode position. The sell-off in early April resulted in a breach of €61.98, the Oct 9 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and opens €56.76, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at €68.44, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger correction.
- Wind output in CWE between 6-14 May is forecast at load factors of 14-23% during base load hours according to SpotRenewables.
- Solar PV output in CWE on 6-14 May is forecast at load factors of 27-34% during peak load according to SpotRenewables.
- The ICE exchange will launch EU ETSS 2 futures on Tuesday, ahead of EEX’s launch on 7 July.
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €66.64/ton CO2e, compared with €63.55/ton CO2e on 29 April, while switching to a discount to the futures contract.
- Transport emissions in France are lagging behind the country’s targets according to preliminary data. French transport emissions are estimated at 125.7mn tons CO2e in 2024.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Strong S/T Bounce
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.915 - High Apr 4
- PRICE: 95.860 @ 16:42 GMT Apr 04
- SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Structure
- RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 2: 1.4308 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4242 High Apr 4
- PRICE: 1.4196 @ 17:10 BST Apr 4
- SUP 1: 1.4028 Low Apr 3
- SUP 2: 1.3986 Low Dec 2 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD rallied Friday, but remains lower on the week after Thursday’s downleg. The move down has confirmed a clear reversal of the bull cycle between Sep 25 ‘24 and Feb 3. Price is through a key support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 1.3944, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 1.4308, the 50-day EMA.
CANADA DATA: Unexpected Jobs Contraction Boosts Implied April BOC Cut Chances
Canadian employment unexpectedly contracted in March, falling by the most since January 2022 at -32.6k (+10.0k expected, +1.1k prior) in a sign that the trade war with the US is spilling over increasingly into the "hard" data. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1pp to 6.7%, in line with expectations and below the November 6.9% high, though unrounded it rose from 6.55% to 6.71% - the largest increase since November.
- The drop in employment was largely due to a 62.0k drop in full-time positions (after -19.7k, the 2nd straight drop), with part-time up for the 4th consecutive month at 29.5k (after 20.8k prior) - that mix is clearly indicative of hiring uncertainty among firms.
- The monthly full-time drop was the 2nd largest since the pandemic lows in the labour market (April 2020). Goods producing jobs fell by 12k (2nd consecutive decline), while services shed 21k (wholesale/retail trade and Information, culture and recreation led losses).
- The participation rate dipped 0.1pp to 65.2%.
- Wages were soft, dropping 0.2% M/M for the first drop since November, with the Y/Y rate slipping to 3.6% from 3.8% prior. The rise in permanent employees' wages of 3.5% Y/Y was well below the 4.1% expected (4.0% prior).
- Market-implied probability of an April BOC rate cut rose to as high as 68% after the data before settling the day at around 55%. That compares to 40% prior to Wednesday's US tariffs announcement.
