EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Fall, UKAs Rise
Oct-30 16:28
EUAs Dec25 are trending lower, weighed by losses in EU gas and equities. TTF is declining to near the lowest since July 2024, while STOXX is down on mix responses to earnings. Meanwhile, the width of the volatility indicator for both EUAs and UKAs have narrowed, reflecting reduced market volatility as traders await new catalysts.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.23% at 78.63 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.99% at 55.91 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas NOV 25 down 2.6% at 31.03 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas NOV 25 down 3.4% at 77.8 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.2% at 5692.29
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €78.71/ton CO2e, up 1.10% compared with the previous EU auction at €77.85/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- A medium-term uptrend in ICE EUA futures remains intact and the contract is trading above support. The level to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, currently at €76.75. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. Sights are on €80.37, the Oct 10 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open €82.12, the Feb 12 high.
- EUA prices are forecast to surge to €207 by 2034 as free allowances start phasing out from 2026 through 2034, according to OPIS.
- TTF front month is slightly lower though within the trading range seen yesterday. Upside is limited by an above normal temperature forecast and healthy LNG and Norwegian pipeline supply.
- EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 45) - A total of 16.8mn EUAs will be auctioned next week across four auction sessions. The latest EU ETS auction cleared at €78.71/ton CO2e, up 0.22% w/w, standing above the 10, 50 and 100-day averages.
- EU chemical producers face steep carbon cost increases as free allowances start phasing out from 2026 through 2034, according to Chemical Market Analytics.
- The Association for Decentralised Energy (ADE) has warned that the UK government’s new carbon delivery plan risks undermining progress toward net zero by failing to support industrial decarbonisation.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $11.25B Kuwait 3Pt Launched
Sep-30 16:21
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 09/30 $11.25B #Kuwait $3.25B 3Y +40, $3B 5Y +40, $5B 10Y +50
- 09/30 $1.5B *Rentenbank 5Y SOFR+37
- 09/30 $1.5B #Egypt $700M 3Y 6.375%, $800M 7Y Sukuk 7.95%
- 09/30 $1.25B Carnival Corp 3.5NC
- 09/30 $1B ADT 8NC guidance TBA
- 09/30 $700M #Centerpoint Energy 30.5NC5.25 5.95%
- 09/30 $600M #Turk Telekom 7Y 6.95%
- 09/30 $Benchmark Kuwait 3Y, 5Y, 10Y
- 09/30 $Benchmark Guardian Life 5Y +60
- 09/30 $Benchmark Pacific Gas & Electric 3Y, 7Y & 30Y
- 09/30 $1.4B WBI Operating 5NC2 6.25%, 8NC3 6.5%
- 09/30 $Benchmark Thermo Fisher +5Y +70a, 7Y +80a, 10Y +90a, 12Y +100a
- 09/30 $Benchmark Bahrain +8Y Sukuk, 12Y investor calls
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Sep-30 16:13
- EUR/USD: Oct02 $1.1695-00(E1.5bln), $1.1750(E1.1bln), $1.1785-90(E2.8bln); Oct03 $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1845-55(E1.9bln), $1.1875(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct02 Y147.95-00($1.6bln), Y149.50($1.0bln); Oct06 Y147.00($1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Oct02 $0.6600(A$1.7bln); Oct03 $0.6600(A$1.5bln); Oct06 $0.6700(A$1.1bln)
- NZD/USD: Oct03 $0.6450(N$1.2bln)
FED: US TSY TO SELL $67.000 BLN 17W BILL OCT 01, SETTLE OCT 07
Sep-30 16:05
- US TSY TO SELL $67.000 BLN 17W BILL OCT 01, SETTLE OCT 07
