EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Fall On Selling Pressure
EUAs Dec25 are edging down to a one-week low, marking a fourth consecutive losing session, with selling pressure persisting since the contract reached overbought levels on 29 July. Meanwhile, UKAs Dec25 are trending upward amid influences from TTF and equities gains.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.38% at 70.77 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 2% at 50.94 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas SEP 25 up 0.7% at 34.225 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas SEP 25 up 0.8% at 84.59 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 1.4% at 5238.9
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €69.52/ton CO2e, down 3.44% compared with the previous EU auction at €72/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- Last week’s gains in ICE EUA futures initially resulted in a move through resistance at €72.79, the Jul 3 high. However, prices have faded since - instead pushing prices closer to nearby support. The next downside level to watch lies at €68.71, the May 19 low. A clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish theme and open €66.44, a Fibonacci retracement. Any continuation higher would open €76.75, the Jun 13 high and a key bull trigger.
- TTF front month extends the decline from a high of almost €35.5/MWh last week with steady imports and healthy storage injections set against warm weather and LNG supply risks. Increasing competition for LNG cargoes was supportive last week while focus remains on threats of secondary tariffs/sanctions on Russia.
- Environmental consultancy, Carbone 4, is calling for extending EU ETS to all departing flights from the European Economic Area (EEA) and ending exemptions for private jets, it said.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3674/3776 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3607 @ 16:12 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
The trend needle in USDCAD points south and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. S/T gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger is 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3776. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.6548 @ 16:05 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 0.6521 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6468/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 171.88 High Jul 19 ‘24
- RES 3: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24
- RES 1: 170.61 High Jul 03
- PRICE: 170.22 @ 16:04 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 169.04 Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 167.87 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20
- SUP 4: 165.66 50-day EMA
EURJPY traded higher on Thursday resulting in a print above 170.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 sell-off. A clear break of this price point would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for extension. This would open 170.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 167.87, the 20-day EMA.
