EMISSIONS: EU End Of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Fall On EU Gas, Equities Losses

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are trending downward amid EU gas and equities losses over US tariff concerns. Meanwhile, implied volatility for EUAs/UKAs Dec25 is rising to a four-month high and a three-week high, respectively, as the market prices in expectations of larger price swings.

• EUA DEC 25 down 1.5% at 61.14 EUR/MT
• ICE UKA Dec25 down 1.1% at 41.25 GBP/MT
• TTF Gas MAY 25 down 7.2% at 33.61 EUR/MWh
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained high at 0.65.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period tightened to 0.68 from the 0.66 on the previous day, as both contracts sharing a similar movement.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent at €13.45/t CO2e.
• The trend in ICE EUA futures remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces this theme. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of key support at €61.98, the Oct 9 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for an extension towards €56.76, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. Initial resistance is at €65.24, the Apr 7 high.
• Speculator positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange remains bullish for the fourth consecutive week with net long positionings at all-time high, the latest COT data as of 4 April showed.
• Speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish for the second consecutive week with net long positionings at the lowest the week to 3 January, the latest COT data as of 4 April showed.
• The US Trade Representative cited the EU’s CBAM as unfair trade practice in a social media post.
• The US is threatening to retaliate against any international levy on their shipping emissions, with Washington urging members of the UN’s IMO to reconsider their support.
• Carbon prices fell across global emissions trading systems (ETSs) in 2024 amid economic uncertainty, energy market fluctuations and shifting regulatory sentiment, according to the International Carbon Action Partnership.