EMISSIONS: EU End Of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Fall On EU Equities Losses
{EUAs Dec25 are trending downward alongside EU equities, with TTF intraday movement also suppressing carbon prices. UKAs Dec25 are rangebound as traded volume is expected to be lower than average ahead of holiday.
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.48% at 65.98 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.7% at 47.07 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas MAY 25 up 1.2% at 35.73 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas MAY 25 up 0.6% at 87.42 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.5% at 4880
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period weakened to 0.58 from the 0.61 on the previous day.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.72.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €11.12/t CO2e.
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €65.06/ton CO2e, down 1.74% compared with the previous EU auction at €66.21/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- The trend in ICE EUA futures remains bearish and recent fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. The latest sell-off resulted in a breach of key support at €61.98, the Oct 9 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for an extension towards €56.76, a Fibonacci projection. Recent gains are considered corrective. The 20-day EMA has been pierced. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at €69.64.
- What to Watch Next Week: A total of 8.1mn EUAs will be auctioned next week after the Easter holiday, with only three sessions in the week and volume down 40% compared to a normal week with five auctions of 13.4mn EUAs.
- The EU Commission flagged that EU ETS price volatility amplify the risk to decarbonisation investments, it said.
- Germany’s newly agreed coalition government could increase emissions and raise demand for EUAs, with its agenda on economics and policies on gas and coal plants, according to the latest BNEF report.
- The EC has launched a public consultation on the new Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act that support its Clean Industrial Deal, it said.
- The UK Government launched a consultation on integrity framework for voluntary carbon market, to ensure that it complements the UK ETS, it said.
- Critics warned that EU-UK ETS linkage may undermine UK’s economic growth and raise energy bills by £112 per household due to higher carbon costs for gas-fired generation, according to The Telegraph.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EU: Von Der Leyen Says EU Must "Get Ready For War"
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stated in a speech at the Royal Danish Military Academy in Copenhagen that Europe “must get ready for war,” following a period of “underinvestment” and “complacency” in defence policy.
- Von der Leyen says: “By 2030, Europe must have strong defence posture," says the EU's 'Readiness 2030' means "to have re-armed and developed capabilities to have credible deterrence.”
- Says that tomorrow the EU will unveil a ‘roadmap’ for ‘Readiness 2023’ which will cover four key priorities and detail 800 billion euros of spending. VDL says the roadmap will cover joint procurement that will allow the EU to “buy faster and buy more European.”
- Von der Leyen says that the first priority for Europe is a “surge in defence spending”. Says the EU must develop “large-scale projects” and “step up collaborative procurement”.
- Von der Leyen adds that the EU will set up a joint task force with Ukraine to “coordinate military support”, and the bloc is working to break new ground on security with the UK.”
- Von der Leyen says that decisions to ramp up defence spending taken by Denmark and Germany (today) are “both historic and necessary.”
FED: US TSY 52W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.218 BLN FROM $48.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 52W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.218 BLN FROM $48.000 BLN TOTAL
GERMANY: Bundestag Passes Debt Brake Reform & Infra Fund Creation w/ 2/3 Maj.
The Bundestag has approved a constitutional amendment to loosen the federal debt brake to allow for greater defence spending, to create an E500B infrastructure fund, and allow the federal states to rack up a structural deficit of 0.35% of GDP. The measures passed with 517 votes in favour and 207 opposed, crossing the two-thirds majority threshold of 489. Following the deal reached late last week, the vote totals would indicate that only a handful of lawmakers from the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, the centre-left Social Democrats, and the environmentalist Greens did not vote in favour of the landmark reforms.
- As noted earlier (see 'GERMANY: Bundesrat Should Not Prove Obstacle To Debt Brake Reform', 1129GMT), the measures will now go to the Bundesrat, which holds its next plenary session on 21 March. It is largely seen as a formality that the chamber will pass the measures, allowing them to go onto the statute books before the new Bundestag convenes on 25 March. With the passage of the reforms, the 'old' Bundestag has been formally closed.
