EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: Carbon Track Weekly Losses On Tariffs
{EUEUAs Dec25 are falling today, erasing gains in the week and on track for 0.39% weekly losses, pressured by biggest EU equities decline since April and TTF drop today following the US tariff announcements, including the 39% tariff on Switzerland, one of the steepest tariffs globally. Meanwhile, UKA Dec25 contracts are trending downward to a one-week low and are on track for 0.22% weekly losses, weighed by downward pressure from EUAs and global equities.
- EUA DEC 25 down 2.11% at 71.13 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 1.96% at 49.99 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas SEP 25 down 4.3% at 33.755 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas SEP 25 down 4.3% at 83.12 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 2.7% at 5176.45
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €71.14/ton CO2e, up 1.31% compared with the previous Germany auction at €70.22/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- This week’s gains in ICE EUA futures have resulted in a move through resistance at €72.79, the Jul 3 high. Clearance of this hurdle signals a potential reversal. A continuation higher would open €76.75, the Jun 13 high and a key bull trigger. On the downside, support to watch lies at €68.71, the May 19 low. A clear break of this level would reinstate a bearish theme and open €66.44, a Fibonacci retracement.
- European stocks were tracking their biggest decline since April following the US announcing a 39% tariff on Switzerland, with STOXX down over 2% on the day.
- Global equities, including US, European and Asian indexes, declined on US tariff announcements, with rate of up to 41% for countries globally, and rate on Canada being raised from 25% to 35% .
- BNEF held a bearish view over EU ETS in August amid the expectation of falling allowances demand due to lower power demand across the bloc as temperatures cool slightly and improvement in renewables generation, it said.
- TTF front month has fallen from a peak of almost €35.5/MWh but remains set for a net weekly gain amid signs of increasing competition for LNG cargoes given various diversions away from Europe in recent days. Warm weather in August and threats of secondary tariffs/sanctions on Russia have added support.
- In August, power emissions are expected to fall 16% on renewables rebound and demand drops, while downside risk for industrial emissions is expected to be high amid macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff threats, according to BNEF.
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US: House Moves To Consider The Rule Of OBBB, Inches Toward Final Vote
The House of Representatives has cleared the first procedural hurdle on the GOP's One Big Beautiful Bill. The House has now moved to debate the rule of the bill. When debate concludes, the House will vote to adopt the rule, potentially discharging the package for a floor vote on final passage. The vote will offer the first opportunity for conservative hardliners to signficantly delay passage of the bill by voting down the rule.
- The vote tally on the first procedural vote indicates there are currently eight Republican absences and one Democratic absence. That number is likely to change during the day.
- Meredith Lee Hill at Politico notes that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), "just met off campus with a mix of fiscal hawks. Inside the meeting - there were Freedom Caucus hardliners but ALSO key and hugely influential budget hawks like Rep Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania that group held out for a better deal last time."
- If Johnson convinces hardliners to approve the rule, the bill will be on a relatively smooth path to Trump's desk. If the rule is rejected, negotiations and horse trading are likely to continue through the day.
- Rep Tim Burchett (R-TN) told reporters ahead of the White House meeting, when asked what the White House could say to flip his vote: “Reduce the deficit, answer our questions, stick to the House framework”.
