EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: Carbon Track Weekly Gains On EU-UK CBAM

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising and on track for 4.2% and 5% weekly gains respectively, hitting highest level since mid-Feb and one-week high. The rally was driven by the interpretation of a potential progress on EU-UK ETS link, following news reported yesterday that the EU and UK are near agreeing a temporary deal exempting UK businesses from the EU’s CBAM.

• EUA DEC 25 up 2.34% at 79.24 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 1.33% at 57.05 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas NOV 25 down 0.2% at 31.4 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas NOV 25 up 0.2% at 80.45 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 0% at 5645.99
• Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and the latest pullback has been a correction. Today’s climb has delivered a print above resistance and the bull trigger at €78.45, the Sep 17 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Price has also traded through €78.73, 76.4% of the Jan 30 - Apr 9 bear leg. Sights are on the €80.00 handle next. Firm support lies at €74.56, the 50-day EMA.
• EUA Dec25 options implied volatility as of 2 Oct fell to its all-time low, while the delta call-put volatility skew rising to the second narrowest since February, indicating limited near-term price swings expectation and reduced demand for downside protection.
• TTF front month has been bouncing within a €1/MWh range since falling to a low of €30.735/MWh on Oct. 1, with returning pipeline supplies set against limited storage injections.
• The European Sea Ports Organisation (ESPO) is urging IMO member states to formally adopt the Net-Zero Framework ahead of the 14-17 Oct MEPC meeting, and calling on the EU Commission to ensure strong alignment.