EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: Carbon Rises, UK Power Fall

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising amid influence from gas intraday movement, while low liquidity on the day capping gains. UK June power base load is trending lower with losses in gas prices weighed against higher UKAs and a sharp downward revision in UK wind output next week.

• EUA DEC 25 up 0.68% at 67 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 1.65% at 47.99 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas JUN 25 down 0.6% at 32.12 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas JUN 25 down 0.9% at 77.19 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 down 0.3% at 5107
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €10.47/t CO2e.
• The intraday correlation between EUAs/TTF is currently at 0.45, while it had hit the height at above 0.75 near noon and 2pm GMT.
• The intraday correlation between EUAs/UKAs is currently at 0.2, while it had hit the height at above 0.60 in the morning and 3pm GMT.
• and hit the height at 0.69 near noon.
• ICE EUA futures remain in consolidation mode. The trend is bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Recent fresh cycle lows reinforce a bearish theme. The sell-off early April resulted in a breach of €61.98, the Oct 9 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and opens €56.76, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has been pierced. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at €68.49.
• The EBRD will provide financing for the studies of the 3GW GREGY subsea power link between Greece and Egypt.
• Drax hedged 21.1TWh of forward power sales at an average achieved price of £93.6/MWh for its generation between 2025 and 2027 as of 29 April.
• Spain’s deputy prime minister Yolanda Diaz urged the state to take control of Spain’s grid operator, Red Electrica, following the power blackout on Monday.
• EdF has adjusted planned works due to modulation at the Blayais 2, St Alban 2 and Tricastin 1 nuclear reactors, remit data showed.
• CRU forecasted EUAs to rise in May amid falling wind generation and gas-to-coal switching, while Carbon Pulse said that analysts had cut expectation due to bearish fundamentals, they said.
• A coalition of more than 50 signatories has called on the EU and UK to initiate talks on linking their ETS ahead of EU-UK Summit on 19 May, according to the joint letter.